Donald Trump’s surprising claim this week that talks with Iran were yielding significant progress has only deepened the confusion surrounding a conflict whose objectives remain unclear.
The most fundamental question persists: what talks?
A 15-point plan from the Trump administration, outlining a potential pathway to de-escalation, was offered to Iran via Pakistan late on Tuesday, said a source briefed on the proposal’s contours, who was not authorized to speak publicly.
However, Iran has so far denied any negotiations were taking place, pledging to fight “until complete victory.”
Behind the scenes, Pakistan, Egypt, and several Gulf Arab nations are attempting to facilitate discussions, though their efforts appear to be in their preliminary stages. Concurrently, Israel has vowed to maintain its attacks.
Indeed, the conflict seems to be escalating rather than abating. Tuesday saw barrages fired into Iran, Israel, and across the wider Middle East. Furthermore, thousands of additional US Marines are en route to the Gulf, and the Army is preparing to deploy at least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region in the coming days.
Here is what’s known and not known about possible talks to wind down the war.
What has Trump said?
Since launching the war alongside Israel on Feb. 28, Trump has given shifting and often vague objectives, and those mixed messages were on display in recent days. He has talked of degrading or destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, and its ability to threaten neighbors — goals that he has some flexibility in declaring accomplished. A much tougher goal is ensuring Iran can never build a nuclear weapon, and Trump has insisted that will be part of any deal.
A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a vital waterway for oil shipments that Iran made virtually impassable when the war began — is now also a priority, for Trump and the global economy.
As Trump talks of engaging with leaders in Iran, he has backed off promoting the Islamic Republic’s collapse. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, continues to say the war aims to help Iranians overthrow the theocracy.
Trump claimed that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner held talks Sunday with an Iranian leader. He did not say who that was.
Reports focused on Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf as a possible interlocutor. But Qalibaf quickly denied talks were taking place in a post on X.
The U.S. agreed “in principle” to join talks in Pakistan, according to three Pakistani officials, one Egyptian official and a Gulf diplomat, while mediators were still working to convince Iran. The officials all spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to provide the details to the media.
The Egyptian official said efforts are centered on “trust-building” between the U.S. and Iran, aiming to reach a pause in fighting and a “mechanism” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The 15-point peace plan
A 15-point plan from the Trump administration has been delivered to Iran by intermediaries from Pakistan, who have offered to host renewed negotiations, according to a person briefed on the contours of the plan but who was not authorized to speak publicly about it.
Israeli officials, who have been advocating for Trump to continuing prosecution the war against Iran, were taken by surprise by the U.S. administration’s submission of a ceasefire plan, the person said.
But with the U.S. taking steps to send additional soldiers and Marines to the Mideast, the move is being framed as Trump maneuvering to give himself “max flexibility” on what he’ll do next, the person added.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment on the administration submitting the 15-point plan.
Who speaks for Iran?
Iran’s leadership appears to have remained relatively cohesive, despite weeks of heavy bombardment and the killing of its supreme leader and many top-ranking military figures.
But who actually is in charge is not known. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, hasn’t been seen or directly heard from since he was named to replace his slain father, Ali Khamenei.
Within the Islamic Republic are other centers of power, including the military and the powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, as well as political figures like Qalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian.
It’s not certain anyone entering talks with the U.S. would have backing from the military or Guard. In the ongoing war, Iran’s military has conducted strikes based on orders of local commanders, rather than from any political leadership, Araghchi has said.
The spokesman of Iran’s top military command, Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi, vowed on Tuesday that the fighting “will continue until complete victory.” It was a message of defiance to Trump’s claim that Iran was petitioning for peace, but possibly also a warning to anyone within the Iranian leadership not to back down in talks.
Was Trump trying to buy time?
Trump’s sudden declaration of progress in talks on Monday came just as the deadline was about to run out on an ultimatum he had made over the weekend threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the country releases its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran threatened to retaliate against power, water and oil infrastructure across the Gulf.
Trump on Monday pushed the deadline back five days and said there’s a “very good chance” a deal could be reached this week. That was a relief to global oil and stock markets.
Trump’s move could signal he’s wary of the war’s possible long-term damage to the U.S. and global economy, though his administration has insisted that any pain from spiking oil prices will quickly be reversed once the war is over.
“Trump could be actively seeking an offramp,” the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank, wrote in an analysis.
On the other hand, the Soufan Center noted, Trump could be buying time for thousands of Marines heading to the region to arrive.
The Marine deployment could be a tactic to pressure Iran on negotiations. But it has also raised speculation that the U.S. may try to seize Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, which is vital to Iran’s oil network, or carry out an operation to remove enriched uranium from inside Iran. Either would mean a greater escalation and a longer war.
Trump has said he has no plans to send ground forces into Iran but has not ruled it out. Israel has suggested ground forces could participate in the war.
What is there to talk about?
Nuclear negotiations were already taking place when the U.S. and Israel launched their surprise attack on Feb. 28, killing the elder Khamenei in the opening salvos of the bombing campaign.
That only deepened Iranian mistrust of Americans in negotiations, especially after Trump’s unilateral withdrawal in 2018 from a landmark nuclear agreement reached with the United States three years earlier. Iran and the U.S. held negotiations in early 2025, and when a two-month deadline set by Trump ran out, Israel hit Iran in a surprise attack that the U.S. joined in a 12-day war, striking Iranian nuclear facilities and military positions.
Trump said Monday that any deal to end the war will entail the U.S. removing Iran’s enriched uranium, which is critical to its disputed nuclear program. Iran refused that demand in the past, insisting it has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.
A less ambitious goal for talks could be to reach a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
But Araghchi seemed to reject any partial deal in an interview with Al Jazeera last Wednesday. “We don’t believe in ceasefire. We believe in the end of war … the end of war in all fronts,” Araghchi said, emphasizing the need for solutions to conflicts throughout the region.
Where is Israel in this?
Notably, Israel is not involved in the move for negotiations.
Israel has depicted itself as following Trump’s lead, and it seems unlikely to continue with its strikes on Iran if the U.S. declared an end to the war. Still, it has pursued its own war aims beyond the Americans’. Its bombing last week of Iran’s offshore South Pars natural gas field triggered intensified Iranian attacks on the Gulf Arab states, and Trump told Israel to halt such attacks.
In a statement late Monday, Netanyahu acknowledged Trump’s diplomatic efforts but said Israel would continue to strike its enemies for the time being.
Also, an end to the war on Iran does not mean an end to Israel’s bombing campaign in Lebanon. There, Israel has seized a new opportunity to try to crush Hezbollah after the militants fired rockets in support of Iran.
