A global energy shock, stemming from the conflict in Iran, is driving a significant shift towards nuclear power generation across Africa and Asia, and even spurring atomic energy ambitions in nations previously without such programmes.
Asia, a primary destination for Middle Eastern oil and natural gas, was among the first and most severely impacted by disruptions to vital shipping routes, with Africa swiftly following suit.
The ripple effect is also being felt in the US and Europe, where energy costs are escalating.
Nations in Africa and Asia that already operate nuclear plants are now increasing their output in a scramble for immediate energy supplies.
Concurrently, non-nuclear countries are accelerating long-term atomic energy plans, seeking to safeguard against future fossil fuel price volatility.
However, nuclear power is not a rapid solution to the current energy crisis. Developing atomic energy infrastructure can span decades, particularly for countries new to the technology.
Despite this, Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations notes that current long-term commitments to nuclear power are likely to embed it firmly within these nations’ future energy mixes.
In Asia, the situation is prompting South Korea to boost its nuclear power generation, while Taiwan is actively debating the restart of its mothballed reactors.
On the African continent, future plans for reactor construction have gained urgency, with Kenya, Rwanda, and South Africa all affirming their support for such initiatives.
Nuclear power harnesses energy released when an atom’s nucleus, typically uranium, undergoes fission. Crucially, this process does not emit climate change-inducing carbon dioxide, unlike fossil fuels.
Nevertheless, it produces potentially hazardous radioactive waste, a significant concern that leads many countries to approach nuclear power with caution.
The war has accelerated a global “nuclear renaissance,” said Rachel Bronson of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, as countries seek an out from the risks of fossil fuel markets.
There are 31 countries that use nuclear power, which provides about 10 per cent of global electricity, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which says another 40 nations are either considering the technology or preparing to build a plant.
Hard-hit Asia advances on nuclear
In Asia, where energy triage efforts range from increased coal use to purchases of Russian crude oil, countries with nuclear plants are seeking to get more out of their existing reactors.
South Korea is increasing generation at its nuclear plants and speeding up maintenance at five offline reactors, with restarts planned in May.
Taiwan and Japan are reversing policies that shuttered nuclear sites following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear meltdown, triggered when an earthquake and tsunami disabled the power supply that cooled the reactors.
Taiwan is considering the years-long process of restarting two reactors because of the current crisis, which will require meticulous inspections, safety checks and control system verifications.
In Japan, since the start of the war, Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has signed a $40 billion reactor deal with the U.S., a nuclear fuel recycling agreement with France and promised Indonesia nuclear cooperation. Japan restarted the world’s largest nuclear plant, the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa site, in January.
Renewables, like solar and wind, make more sense for energy affordability and security, according to Michiyo Miyamoto of the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
While the Iran war is also driving consumer and government interest in renewable energy globally and in Japan, historically high electricity costs combined with the current crisis is swinging Japanese public opinion toward acceptance of nuclear power, she said.
In South Asia, Bangladesh is racing to turn on new reactors built by Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom. Dhaka hopes they will supply the national grid with 300 megawatts by this summer, relieving some pressure from current gas shortfalls.
Meanwhile, Vietnam signed a deal with Moscow in March for two Russian-designed reactors.
The Philippines, which recently declared a national energy emergency, is also considering reviving a nuclear plant built in the aftermath of the 1973 oil crisis but was never turned on.
“I hope we learned our lesson,” said Alvie Asuncion-Astronomo of the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute. The Iran war is “providing a needed push for nuclear.”
Africa voices atomic aims
Soaring energy prices and power shortages in Africa, triggered by the Iran war, is leading to public calls for nuclear cooperation and re-invigorated interest in long-term nuclear energy plans, which are underway in more than 20 of the 54 African countries.
With Africa seen as an atomic energy growth market, nuclear nations — including the U.S., Russia, China, France and South Korea — are pitching advanced technology such as small modular reactors, or SMRs, as a solution to energy shortages.
These modular reactors are a cheaper, more compact alternative to large-scale plants.
Proponents tout them as a faster option, but projects can still take years. Kenya, for instance, plans to bring a small modular reactor online in 2034 after starting the first phase in 2009.
Last month, Justus Wabuyabo of Kenya’s Nuclear Power and Energy Agency, said “nuclear energy is no longer a distant aspiration for African countries; it is a strategic necessity.”
During a March summit convened by the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog agency, Rwandan President Paul Kagame said Africa will be “one of the most important global markets” for the smaller reactors in the years ahead.
Smaller reactors, which can offer scalable, low-emitting base load power, are considered a solution to Africa’s rising electricity demand, weak grids and over reliance on imported diesel.
Similarly, Loyiso Tyabashe of the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation, said SMRs could “fulfill our strategic objective of positioning South Africa at the forefront of advanced nuclear technologies.”
South Africa, which has the continent’s only existing nuclear plants, wants nuclear to go from making around 5% of its energy mix now to 16% by 2040.
US and Russia vie for role as a nuclear provider
The energy disruptions come as competition for influence in Africa intensifies between Washington and Moscow.
Russia’s Rosatom is building Egypt’s first reactor and has cooperation agreements with Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Tanzania and Niger, spanning major projects, research centers, uranium processing facilities and training programs.
While only Kenya and Ghana have joined an American-led modular reactor initiative, Washington is trying to catch up.
The U.S. and South Korea sponsored a nuclear conference in Nairobi last month. Ryan Taugher of the U.S. State Department said Washington is working with African nations to rapidly develop secure and safe civil nuclear reactors.
Ghana, which aims to begin building a nuclear plant in 2027, is in the market for foreign suppliers.
Considering the risks of nuclear energy
Risks like meltdowns and mismanaged waste remain, even as interest builds. Nuclear energy could also be a step toward building nuclear bombs.
Ayumi Fukakusa, of the advocacy group Friends of the Earth Japan, said “nuclear is very risky” and will keep countries reliant on imported fuels such as enriched uranium.
Given that nuclear sectors take years to develop, governments should stay focused on building out renewables for long-term energy security, said Rex Amancio of the Global Renewables Alliance.
Bronson, with the atomic scientists group, also said nuclear plants are vulnerable during conflicts, citing recent instances where reactors were specifically targeted during the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine War.
“All of this comes into the mix of how we think about energy security,” she said. “Countries are now weighing those kinds of risks against the other risks, which Asia and Africa are seeing first and foremost, about what happens when gas and oil stops.”
