-Leaders-Summ.jpeg?trim=342,2149,1090,0&width=1200&height=800&crop=1200:800 "Inside Labour plot to oust Keir Starmer as prime minister is given 12 months to turn things around – UK Times")
On Wednesday, Keir Starmer took everyone by surprise when he suddenly announced a U-turn on Labour’s controversial winter fuel payment cuts.
The response to what appeared to be a planted question from a loyal backbencher during prime minister’s questions certainly wrong-footed Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and meant that Labour MPs left the chamber with smiles on their faces.
But the shock move came as Sir Keir was having to act to shore up power with MPs, senior party figures and trade unionists who have been openly plotting to remove him.
After a turbulent 10 months, the prime minister’s migration announcement earlier this month, where he laid out plans to clamp down on the number of people coming into the UK, was seen as a “watershed moment” for the party — not least because it had echoes of the late right-wing Tory MP Enoch Powell’s infamous “Rivers of Blood” speech.
Now, a large number of MPs from the so-called “soft left” of the party are organising to try to force a change of direction, with allies of deputy prime minister Anglea Rayner urging her to organise a leadership contest.
The growing rebellion comes as around 150 Labour MPs are considering standing against Sir Keir’s plans for welfare cuts amid growing concerns that, on the domestic agenda, his government is going in “the wrong direction”.
But in an apparent attempt to undermine Ms Rayner before any challenge begins, the deputy prime minister has in the last week been subject to a “poisonous briefing campaign” from rivals in government, with a leaked memo about apparent tax rise plans, along with stories that she could be demoted.
Meanwhile, there is now fevered speculation about a reshuffle — with chancellor Rachel Reeves’ job on the line — to allow the prime minister to have a complete reset.
Despite this, MPs, senior party members and others have argued that there is “no way back” after the migration announcement.
One senior figure said: “The party, activists and MPs have been asked to swallow a lot in the first 10 months of this government — winter fuel, welfare cuts, austerity, two child benefit, cosying up to Trump — but the migration announcement was an ‘enough is enough’ watershed moment.”
In another headache for Sir Keir, many Labour MPs believe he has been “too soft” on Israel and should have ended arms sales “long ago”.
Panic is also setting in because feedback from the doorstep, according to a senior figure from the right of the party, is that there is a “visceral personal hatred” for Sir Keir, as well as Ms Reeves, from voters.
One MP, who had been a loyalist, asked The Independent: “How did the Tories do it? There has to be a way to replace the leader.”
Another party figure who helped campaign during the Runcorn by-election said: “I am not sure the prime minister can turn things around in terms of his personal image with voters. But I’m not sure what the alternative is.”
According to this week’s Techne UK poll, the party is now eight points behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK with fears that it is failing to tackle the populist right.
“Trying to sound like Reform will never work,” said one Scottish Labour figure. “It was like trying to out Nat the Nats on Scottish issues — you can’t out-Farage Farage on things like migration. You need your own narrative.”
The Independent has also seen analysis which reveals many Labour voters are now defecting to the Lib Dems and Greens.
A memo sent round to Lib Dem activists shows that, according to Yougov analysis, 13 per cent of 2024 Labour voters have switched to the Lib Dems, while 41 per cent are open to switching and almost a third (29 per cent) are open to switching to the Greens.
Several party insiders have suggested that May 2026 “is being circled” as “a point to make a decision on the prime minister.”
If the elections for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd and English councils and mayors are as disastrous as this year’s local elections, he is certianly likely to face a challenge.
“The nightmare scenario is that we don’t only lose control of Wales for the first time but come third to Reform and Plaid (Cymru, and we come third in Scotland to the SNP and Reform,” said one.
A by-election for the Scottish Parliament in Hamilton South, which is in the seat of the PM’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney’s wife Imogen Walker, is already being seen as an important test where Labour should win.
A huge amount of resources have been ploughed into the campaign but one MP said: “The SNP will win it easily. The problem is we could come third to Reform which would be appalling.”
Meanwhile, although Ms Rayner has been identified as the frontrunner candidate to replace Sir Keir, there are question marks over whether she wants to be leader having already had a bruising time “in the gilded cage”.
Underlining this, Ms Rayner’s allies pointed to the “poisonous” briefing campaign about a memo she sent to Ms Reeves detailing alternatives to the chancellor’s welfare cuts and austerity.
“At least it meant that she was making a progressive case against what is going on at the moment,” one source close to Ms Rayner said.
The deputy prime minister has also been notably silent over the row from Sir Keir and migration. She has been advised by friends “to distance herself” from the prime minister because she “is being associated with the Starmer/ McSweeney project”.
Another leadership rival, this time from the right of the party, is health secretary Wes Streeting, who has also drawn speculation that he is positioning himself for a contest. But he is in danger of losing his seat and MPs believe he is “too right-wing” to win over party members.
One potential ally of Ms Rayner told The Independent: “To turn things around, the party needs a leader who has a new offering on the economy, Israel/ Gaza and welfare. Wes can’t do that. But Angela is in danger of becoming too associated with this government.”
As for Sir Keir’s allies, there are hopes among some that the promise of a winter fuel U-turn can mend some of the damage, with MPs admitting they were more optimistic after he “listened” and announced his review of the policy.
After his successes landing three major trade deals with the US, India and EU within a month, the prime minister’s supporters are urging MPs “to stay the course” insisting that, if he changes things domestically, he may have a lifeline.
“Keir inherited incredibly difficult circumstances from the Tories. He’s working really hard and is not getting nearly enough of the credit he deserves for turning things around, especially those trade deals,” one Cabinet minister said.
And a former Tony Blair adviser added: “He [Starmer] is doing brilliantly on the international stage but terribly on the domestic one.
“If he can turn things around domestically, he will do very well.”
