There’s an old phrase in south Wales: “a one-legged donkey could run for Labour and people around here would still vote for it”.
But on a rainy morning in the former mining town of Caerphilly, it is clear that the saying no longer rings true.
Two days before a crucial by-election, there is no doubt that Sir Keir Starmer will struggle to retain this constituency, which has been considered a Labour stronghold since 1918.
Polls currently show the governing party is heading for a total washout, with a two-horse race emerging between Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform party and the Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru.
This could see first minister Eluned Morgan lose her effective majority in the Senedd – which Labour has held for more than 25 years – and lead to serious questions about the prime minister’s future, particularly with polls suggesting his party could finish third at next year’s Welsh elections.
“That’s the way the country is going, people are fed up,” Jeffrey Letbridge told The Independent. “I’m old enough now to have gone through this time and time again for years. Labour and Conservatives have always been the frontrunners in everything.
“Times have changed and they’ve not kept up with that. They’ve not done anything for the country. We’re in a hell of a state.”
A 71-year-old local, the major concerns for him include immigration and the state of the NHS. From the point of view of many of his generation, the Welsh government has failed to bring down waiting lists, improve social care and their plans to improve the lives of locals have failed to come to fruition.
“I’m going to vote for Nigel Farage because I think he actually has a bit of integrity there. I might sound patronising when I say this but I think people have become more educated in terms of politics, and I think people are starting to realise they’ve been easily led,” he said.
He is not alone in sharing these views. One woman, who wished to remain anonymous, has decided to vote for Reform after discovering she had a terminal lung illness. A lifelong Labour supporter, she had spent two years on NHS waiting lists and feels she has been let down by the services that should have protected her.
Figures released in July showed that NHS treatment waiting lists have now increased to 796,000 – the equivalent of nearly one in four Welsh people.
“I got an 18-year-old and two 35-year-olds, they’re all voting Reform,” she said. “Put it this way, I don’t know anyone who is voting Labour. I was a staunch Labour my whole life, and they’ve lied and lied and lied. It’s not right. When the Labour candidate knocked on my door, my son shut it in his face.”
The presence of Reform is keenly felt across the town. Several houses leading from its shopping street, Cardiff Road, have been decorated with light blue placards, with the pub The Piccadilly also decking itself in posters of its candidate Llyr Powell.
As Mr Powell is seen making his way down the street with a box of canvassing papers, one passer-by waves and shouts: “Mate, I’m voting for you!”
In the brightly decked Reform constituency office, spirits are high. Several people of all ages enter for a talk with members of the team, with leaflets handed out reading “Stop Labour and Plaid Cymru’s Mass Immigration Agenda”.
This includes ending the Senedd’s Nation of Sanctuary policy, the Welsh government’s initiative to help refugees and asylum seekers find employment and integrate themselves into society. Despite making immigration an integral part of their campaign, the 2021 census showed that only 2.9 per cent of people in Caerphilly were born outside the UK.
For a number of those walking around the town on a Tuesday morning, immigration does not feature as highly on their priority list. Several mention high business rates destroying local companies, lengthy ambulance waiting times, lack of investment in infrastructure and roads, as well as poor support for mental health services.
While many hope that Reform UK could bring about change, others remain undecided. “People are totally fed up; there is a shift,” said David Thomas. “It’s been too long, so much has gone wrong, the management of Caerphilly by the council has been very poor. The money just hasn’t been put to good use.”
The 71-year-old has always been an outspoken critic of the council’s financial decisions, and has previously voted tactically in an attempt to oust Labour from power. Despite this, he added: “I’m not sure of Reform. I can’t get the balance on it.
“They’re outspoken and very good with their rhetoric, but whether that’s going to be proven, I’m dubious.”
One thing for certain is that Labour’s first minister, Eluned Morgan, can no longer count on the Caerphilly constituency as a safe seat, with a recent Survation poll predicting her party will only win 12 per cent of the vote.
Meanwhile, Reform UK has been tipped to take 42 per cent, with Plaid Cymru following on 38 per cent. This could spell out a drastic change in the political landscape of Wales as voters head to the polls next May for the Senedd elections.
The Welsh nationalist party are now hoping that they can appeal to younger and progressive voters, as well as those who feel dismayed by Labour and are unsure who to support.
For Lindsay Whittle, representing the people of Caerphilly has been his life’s work since first standing as a councillor for the Penrheol ward in 1976. This campaign is also personal for him, having known and worked alongside Hefin David, the Labour politician whose sudden death has triggered this by-election.
“The first people who first voted for me have long since died, their children and grandchildren now vote for me. I don’t take anything for granted and I would say vote for the person you know you can trust.
“I’m a grassroots guy, vote for something you know you can trust. Someone who doesn’t offer the politics of fear and hope, vote for someone who offers hope and love.”
