The death toll from the devastating early January wildfires around Los Angeles may be more than 400 people greater than the official tally, according to a new study.
The paper, published by Finnish researchers in an American Medical Association journal, looked at the difference between expected and observed deaths in Los Angeles County as the fires were burning and found 440 excess deaths.
They attribute the excess deaths to health conditions made worse by wildfire smoke, as well as mental health issues and health interrupted by the blazes, among other factors.
“The findings from this study underscore the need to complement direct fatalities estimates with alternative methods to quantify the additional mortality burden of wildfires and of climate-related emergencies more broadly,” the authors wrote. “They also highlight the need for improved mortality surveillance during and after wildfire emergencies.”
The study got the attention local leaders, who are still rebuilding after the Palisades and Eatons fires destroyed more than 16,000 structures and were attributed directly to 31 deaths.
L.A. County Supervisor Kathryn Barger, whose district includes the hard-hit Altadena area, said she had seen the study’s findings with interest.
“This study’s assertion that over 400 excess deaths are a result of our Los Angeles wildfires is concerning,” she told the local Daily Breeze newspaper. “In response, I’ve asked our county’s Department of Public Health to thoroughly review the findings and provide their input. It is critical that we understand the full scope of the wildfires’ impacts.”
Another group of recent studies looked at similar indirect impacts from the 2023 Maui wildfire.
The Maui fire was directly blamed for more than 100 deaths. But it also left 1 in 5 with lung damage and as many as half with symptoms of depression, one set of new research found. The month of the fire saw 13 suicide and overdose deaths, translating to nearly double the normal suicide and overdose death rates.
Jonathan Purtle of New York University was the lead author of one study, which calculated rates of suicide and overdose deaths in Maui and Hawaii’s four other counties.
That research team found a 97% increase in suicides and overdose death rates on Maui during the month of the wildfires. The total number of suicide and overdose deaths was 13 that month — most of them suicides.
They also found a 46% increase in such deaths in all five counties, which may have been influenced by displaced Maui residents migrating to other islands, the authors said.
The increases did not last: Rates fells in the following months, the researchers found.
