Summary
November saw a decrease in collision alerts compared to October. More monitorable objects re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere month-on-month but we expect the average monthly numbers to decrease as planned re-entry campaigns dwindle.
All NSpOC warning and protection services functioned as expected throughout the period.
Uncontrolled Re-Entry Early Warning
November has seen an increase in the number of objects re-entering Earth’s atmosphere when compared to the previous month.
Of the 47 objects monitored for re-entry this month, 32 were satellites, 11 rocket bodies, two were pieces of debris and two were classified as unknown objects, likely to a rocket body and a satellite.
Chart showing number of re-entries monitored by month. January 13, February 24, March 25, April 22, May 56, June 48, July 44, August 89, September 50, October 35, November 47
In-Space Collision Avoidance
Collision risks to UK licenced satellites declined by 14.4% in November.
Although fluctuations are expected month-on-month, this is in-line with the prediction that the monthly average will remain higher than during the first six months of 2024.
We had expected a slight increase in risks due to planned satellite launches, however this does not seem to have materialised as yet.
Chart showing number of collision risks to UK-licensed satellites monitored by month. January 1,690, February 1,943, March 1,903, April 1,899, May 2,560, June 1,881, July 1,795, August 2,137, September 3,041, October 3,181, November 2,722
Fragmentation analysis
NSpOC has continued monitoring the aftermath of the Intelsat-33E GEO communications satellite fragmentation which occurred on 19 October. Objects are still being analysed with 18 catalogued objects on Space-Track.org, however, we expect the debris count to be significantly higher over time.
No other fragmentation events were detected or monitored throughout November.
Space weather
During the reporting period, space weather activity was generally less impactful than last month.
Key space weather events over this reporting period include
9-10 November
A Coronal Mass Ejection that arrived on the 09 Nov lead to peak G2 Moderate geomagnetic storm conditions on 10 Nov with possible impacts on satellites in LEO, including increased drag, which may have required corrective manoeuvres.
21-22 November
Solar radiation activity was enhanced with a moderate radiation storm observed. Satellites are likely to have experienced a modest increase in Single Event Upsets to electronic systems
Other than these events, geomagnetic activity was largely muted during the month.
Number of Objects in Space
There was an increase to the in-orbit population during November, with 213 newly catalogued objects added to the US Satellite Catalogue.
Two of the objects were following launches from the end of October, 220 were from new Starlink satellites ; a further 50 pieces of debris from the LM-6A (CZ-6A) fragmentation which occurred at the beginning of August; and 18 pieces of debris from the fragmentation of INTELSAT-33E satellite on 19 October.
The Chinese G60 constellation increased by 18 satellites from the launch in mid-October
Chart showing number registered space objects by month. January 28,014, February 28,172, March 28,478, April 28,752, May 28,850, June 28,931, July 28,917, August 29,297, September 29,678, October 29,665, November 29,826
The National Space Operations Centre combines and coordinates UK civil and military space domain awareness capabilities to enable operations, promote prosperity and protect UK interests in space and on Earth from space-related threats, risks and hazards.
