.png?trim=0,0,0,0&width=1200&height=800&crop=1200:800 "A New Jersey morgue worker was fired after leaking details about the deaths of an NHL star and his brother. State officials upheld the decision – UK Times")
Angela Rayner’s speech on Tuesday evening for the left-wing Mainstream group has reignited the civil war within Labour and, in effect, set a timetable for the end of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.
The latest meltdown within the party came as the local and devolved election campaigns were officially launched for 7 May – a date now circled in red ink as D-Day for Sir Keir.
With one projection, based on the results of modelling company Bombe’s analysis of polls last week, suggesting Labour is on the cusp of losing an eyewatering 1,700 council seats, while Reform gains 1,500 and the Greens about 600, the mood is sombre in the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP).
The loss to the Greens in the Gorton and Denton by-election was bad enough, but wipeouts in Wales, Scotland, London and the former north of England heartlands are now a real prospect.
This week, Unite’s general secretary, Sharon Graham, whose union has just slashed 40 per cent of its funding for Labour, said out loud to Sky News what many are privately thinking: “I think after the May elections there will be a move to change leader because I think Labour are going to pretty much be decimated in those elections. I don’t think that they understand themselves how bad that will be.”
But a plan being mooted to show Sir Keir can take back control of Labour and move his party to the left – apparently with a move to sack two key cabinet figures – still may not be enough to save Sir Keir.
One last big reset
With his enemies circling, readying for his demise, it is understood that the besieged prime minister is still hoping for one final big reset.
This would apparently involve two ousted MPs being brought back into the fold, as well as two big names being thrust into the firing line.
According to insiders, Ms Rayner would come back in, along with former transport secretary Louise Haigh, who was forced to quit over a past conviction for falsely suggesting her phone was stolen. The move would be a surprise given that both were forced to resign under a cloud of scandal.
Meanwhile, Lucy Powell, who was sacked from the cabinet in September for being too left wing over welfare reforms, is said to be pushing for a real cabinet job after winning the contest to replace Ms Rayner as deputy leader of the party.
Meanwhile, there is speculation that health secretary Wes Streeting and chancellor Rachel Reeves could be on their way out.
As one insider put it: “A shift to the left means a change in economic policy, which means a new chancellor.”
The current favourites to replace Ms Reeves are Treasury minister and ex-policy wonk at the influential Resolution Foundation, Torsten Bell, and chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Darren Jones, Ms Reeves’ former deputy.
But with a Downing Street operation where the PM is struggling to recruit anyone because, in the words of one source, “nobody thinks he will survive much beyond May”, the question remains whether he will have the space or authority to carry out such sweeping changes.
Angela Rayner waiting for tax relief
Sir Keir has already publicly expressed a desire to bring back Ms Rayner when he can. But there is no doubt that she is weighing her own options.
Those closest to her say there is nothing she can do until the HMRC investigation into her failure to pay stamp duty on a new flat in Brighton, which prompted her resignation last year, is completed. Currently, there is no official date on when the investigation will conclude, but it was reported this week that it is likely to be resolved by the May elections.
“We thought it would be resolved one way or the other by now, but we are not going to complain about the time being taken,” one ally said about the wait.
Meanwhile, supporters are conducting internal party polling for Ms Rayner, which concludes she is one of just two potential candidates who can replace Sir Keir. The other is Andy Burnham – who is not an MP and so cannot be a leadership candidate. It means Ms Rayner’s return to Sir Keir’s government is not clear.
One ally noted: “She is, of course, willing to listen to what might be offered and decide then, but nothing has been offered so far.”
On her leadership prospects, they added: “She did not come into politics to be prime minister, but if there was support for her and a contest, then she could be persuaded to run.”
Code for: She is getting ready – something that appeared to be confirmed by the speech to Mainstream, where she demanded a change of direction on immigration and economic policy in what were unveiled criticisms of current government policy.
Repairing Rayner’s damaged reputation
Another ally noted a problem beyond her tax affairs, something else which her Mainstream speech aimed to resolve.
“The issue is that she has been tarnished as much as anyone by association with Starmer and his policies on trying to cut welfare and supporting Israel. Before that, she was associated with Jeremy Corbyn. Angela has never had the chance to really present herself and what she believes. She needs to do that before she makes any leadership run.”
This, according to allies, makes it less likely she will take another job with Sir Keir, “but not impossible”.
But it explains other targeted interventions she has made on more support to pubs, bars, and restaurants, or forcing the publication of papers regarding Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador when he had known links to paedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Then last week, via The Independent, letting rebels know she is unhappy about reforms to limit the right of trial by jury.
Supporters laugh off claims she might form an alliance with Mr Streeting.
“He [Streeting] has not approached her at all, and of course, when he talks about a partnership, he means him as prime minister, not her.”
Has Streeting missed his chance?
When Downing Street briefed that Mr Streeting was planning a coup in December, it has now emerged that the prime minister was actually on the verge of sacking him for disloyalty. A number of senior ministers still would like him to do exactly that.
It has made the health secretary a clear target for a reshuffle aimed at showing the party that the prime minister wants to move to the left and leave behind the Blairite right.
So while Ms Reeves’ removal would signal a change of policy direction on the economy, Mr Streeting’s sacking would signal that Sir Keir is taking back control.
One Labour source said: “Wes has missed his chance. Even if he stood against Keir now – assuming he would even have enough MPs to nominate him – the PM feels that he could beat him in a contest and would not stand down.”
It is reflected in claims made by allies of Ms Rayner who say their internal polling shows Mr Streeting’s popularity is “tanking”.
The Mandelson papers fallout
Insiders have told The Independent that Sir Keir had long since stopped taking calls from Lord Mandelson, who was eventually sacked over his links to Epstein and is now facing a police probe, and “outsourced” him to his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney as far back as when Labour were in Opposition.
“Keir just didn’t like or trust Mandelson and found him to be irritating,” one insider claimed.
But the absence of Lord Mandelson and Mr McSweeney, who stood down over the scandal of the disgraced peer’s vetting for the Washington job, leaves Sir Keir with a problem with his planned reshuffle and reset.
One source said: “There’s nobody in his operation to do the political work on who should be in and who should be out.
“The last reshuffle was basically done by McSweeney and Mandelson, which is why it was so bad and lopsided. They couldn’t wait to get rid of Angela and promote their favourites.
“But the prime minister does not have the capacity to do this himself, and the problem is he does not have anyone there who can really do it for him.”
It comes down to a government which gives the appearance of being in its final stages.
“It is hard to recruit anybody when they think the prime minister could be gone in May,” said an advisor in what could be a damning footnote to a dying government.
So, as Sir Keir braces himself for what some fear could be “an existential beating” in the May elections, he is short of allies and support just when he needs to make his biggest, most dramatic reset yet.
