Amid the familiar scenes of Manchester City celebrating a trophy, which will be all too painful for Arsenal, there were a few different images around Wembley.
One was Pep Guardiola having an extended little chat with Thomas Tuchel as the Catalan went up to lift the Carabao Cup. The City manager looked notably thrilled, as if it was the first trophy of his silverware-laden time at the club.
Declan Rice is of course still waiting for that at Arsenal, and Tuchel conspicuously spoke to the midfielder that bit longer as he went by beforehand. Rice did seem the most affected by the defeat, amid a general air of deflation for Arsenal.
It perhaps says enough that none of them looked as down as they did after the 2-2 draw with Wolves. Mikel Arteta of course spoke of a “bad taste” at not getting that medal, but they know the one they really want. Some at City were meanwhile talking about now taking this into the title race, of going anew. Guardiola certainly seemed revitalised. That’s also the effect that a local youngster, in the form of Nico O’Reilly, performing as he did can have.
There’ll be that new confidence – at least for now.
This is the context the Carabao Cup tends to generally be put in, of course, even if it still has a value in its own right. It is what it means for the rest of the season.
While there will obviously be a lot of focus on the “psychology” and “momentum”, some high-profile managers present in the royal box and elsewhere were most struck by the physical conditions. The consensus among coaches was that both teams looked “exhausted”.
Arteta did mention how this was his team’s 50th game of the season. City meanwhile had the complications of the Club World Cup on top of all of this.
That was perhaps partly why there were so few clear chances, so little clean play, and moments when players – especially in the red of Arsenal – couldn’t seem to complete simple technical executions like passes or even control the ball.
The feeling among Arteta’s squad was that it was just one of those games where they “did nothing right”. It happens, and it’s not really considered as consequential as in other games, because they have those bigger aims.
That is also why there is now even greater appreciation that Tuchel has come up with this innovative split-squad England camp that affords his senior players, such as Rice, a rest.
That wasn’t universal, though.
You could almost say the difference was Rodri having his best game since before his injury – and really dominating Arsenal’s midfield – while Bernardo Silva and Rayan Cherki produced the necessary creativity when required. There may be a bigger point there, too.
Neither side was quite pressing to the extent you would expect, although City clearly did it better. And, when Arsenal spent long periods trying to bait them, Guardiola’s team resisted. With the match then devolving into tests of man-to-man marking that couldn’t be applied to the maximum, there was finally space for some ingenuity from Cherki and Silva.
Arsenal simply didn’t have that. Put bluntly, they missed Martin Odegaard and Eberechi Eze. Sources close to the latter say it is just a calf strain, and not a cause for major concern.
Some in the Arsenal camp were insisting on seeing the game in the same way, despite the disappointment. It was pointed out that Arteta’s side forced James Trafford into four saves while hitting the post and crossbar, but City only had two efforts on target.
Which of course raises the central issue of the goalkeeper. Kepa Arrizabalaga has not had the best relationship with the Carabao Cup final, given what also happened here with Chelsea in 2019.
Had he caught Cherki’s relatively tame cross, this final might well have stayed a tight 0-0 and gone into extra-time. Had David Raya played, others at Arsenal might say, they could have won.
It’s almost pointless to ponder, though, and not just because it’s now done. Arteta was never going to change his goalkeeper, as the firm belief is that doing that would be ruinous to “the culture” of the squad.
The counter point is winning a trophy might have superseded that, but would the Carabao Cup represent enough itself?
Far more relevant, especially regarding April’s grand title showdown, is this pressing arms race between the teams; the game of chess between the managers that underpins the actual play.
Again, neither side was exactly at full pelt, but Guardiola did come up with new triggers that gave Arteta some unexpected tests. At half-time, the Catalan clearly realised it was almost playing into Arsenal’s feet to press their back line and Martin Zubimendi as they did in the first half, especially with Kepa unable to pass like Raya and Gyokeres just not able to hold long balls up. So, City conspicuously started to stand off. Illustrating the way modern game now goes, it opened the play up for them. Passing avenues were completely blocked off, with Zubimendi having a poor game, and Arsenal just couldn’t build. Their technical inefficiency on the day made it worse, as the ball kept going back to City – hence the route for the two goals.
Maybe the biggest surprise was why Arsenal but again it was about personnel. It’s one other reason why they missed Oze and Odegaard, since Havertz might otherwise have been pushed up to the nine.
This only further opened the space for Rodri, Silva, Cherki and O’Reilly to have effect. Arsenal do now have to think about all of this for the league game.
So, however, do City. The difference there is that Arsenal won’t have to win the game and modern pressing systems mean it is no longer quite a case of getting caught in two minds in such situations. City could play the same approach and it would just lead to even more of a stalemate.
That isn’t to say there won’t be a psychological effect.
In short, to go with the question over the number one, Guardiola himself did a number on Arteta. It was just another reminder on the day that the apprentice – a label he will surely now hate – still has some way to go.
And for that huge game on 19 April, Arteta is going to have to work out City’s press. He’s going to need to have a deep think about personnel.
Ultimately, Guardiola came up with yet another novel innovation, to ensure a familiar scene.
