England could seal their place in the 2026 World Cup knockout stages tonight, ensuring their progression with a match to spare in Group L.
Thomas Tuchel’s side are top of Group L on four points, following an impressive opening win against Croatia and then a 0-0 stalemate against Ghana on Tuesday night.
The format of the 48-team World Cup, however, means England’s place in the last-32 could be secured ahead of playing Panama in their final fixture on Saturday.
England are guaranteed to finish in the top three places of Group L, with Panama already eliminated due to the head-to-head tiebreaker following defeats to Ghana and Croatia.
And, with four points, England only need the third-place team in four of the 12 groups to finish on three points. There are already two: South Korea in Group A and Scotland in Group C.
How England can qualify for the World Cup knockout stages tonight – and who they could play in the knockout stages
Friday 26 June
Fixtures
Norway vs France (Group I) – 8pm BST
Senegal vs Iraq (Group I) – 8pm BST
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia (Group H) – 1am BST
Uruguay vs Spain (Group H) – 1am BST
Egypt vs Iran (Group G) – 4am BST
New Zealand vs Belgium (Group G) – 4am BST
What England need:
England will be assured of progression if two of the third-placed finishers from the three groups settled today end on three points or fewer. In Group I, that is guaranteed – neither Senegal nor Iraq have a point yet and will know a win is a must if they are to go through.
In Group H, any of the quartet of competing nations could finish third. Spain top the group on four points but could drop down if they are beaten by Uruguay and Cape Verde overcome Saudi Arabia. A Uruguay draw with Spain would guarantee England progress – they would move to three points and either finish third if there is a winner in the other game, or be level on points with Cape Verde if they draw with Saudi Arabia. A Saudi Arabia win in those circumstances would take them through in second.
The permutations in Group G are similar, though England may already be confirmed in the knockout stages by the time the final fixtures are held. Egypt top the group on four points and play Iran, who have two – the same tally as Belgium, who take on New Zealand. Only a scenario in which Iran beat Egypt and there is a winner in the Belgium–New Zealand game will provide a third-placed finisher on four points.
Who will England face in the round of 32 if they top Group L?
England would still have work to do to top Group L, and will do so if they beat Panama and better Ghana’s result against Croatia. Since England and Ghana drew 0-0, it would come down to goal difference to determine who finishes top if they are level on points. Ghana could overhaul England if they beat Croatia by a big scoreline. An England win, combined with a draw between Ghana and Croatia, or a Croatia win, would confirm it.
In that scenario, they will face the third-place team from one of Group E/H/I/J/K in the round of 32. As things stand, these are the teams that could be in the mix to face the Three Lions:
- Group E: Ecuador
- Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia
- Group I: Senegal, Iraq
- Group J: Algeria, Austria
- Group K: Portugal, DR Congo
Who will England face in the knockouts if they finish as runners-up?
If England were to finish as group runners-up, they will face the second-placed team from Group K – that will be decided in a shootout between Colombia and Portugal. If Colombia avoid defeat, it would be Portugal – assuming DR Congo don’t win by a massive scoreline against Uzbekistan.
What is England’s route to the final?
In the last-16, England could face Group A winners Mexico in the high-altitude cauldron of the Estadio Azteca.
If they overcame that serious test of resolve, Group C winners Brazil could be their quarter-final opponent.
Argentina, following a fine start with Lionel Messi’s five goals, may then be their potential semi-final opposition.
