After two weeks of turmoil and violence in the Strait of Hormuz, an international cargo ship has transited safely through the Iranian waterway with its tracker turned on in what experts described as a major breakthrough.
The Pakistan-flagged ship, the Karachi, also known as the Lorax, became the first non-Iranian vessel to pass through the strait with its automatic identification system (AIS) signal turned on, on Sunday afternoon.
Hundreds of ships are trapped in the Gulf after Iran claimed complete control over the strait, days after the US and Israel declared war and assassinated supreme leader Ali Khamenei. At least 16 ships have been attacked in the Gulf since the war started on 28 February, according to the UK Maritime Trade Organisation (UKMTO).
The Strait of Hormuz in particular is considered to be one of the world’s most valuable shipping routes, with 20 million barrels of oil passing through it each day.
But experts have suggested that Tehran may be loosening its iron grip on the strait for countries that are willing to negotiate, with certain vessels seemingly granted safe passage through diplomacy.
Matthew Wright, a freight analyst from global trade firm Kpler, told The Independent: “This is Iran’s widening strategy.
“The amount of control Iran has over the waterway is significant. And they’ve been able to move their own cargoes pretty comfortably over the last two weeks. Now they are selectively managing oil flows through that checkpoint. At the moment, it appears to be friendly Asian partners.
“But what’s significant is we don’t expect this to be a trend that they can expand more broadly without undermining the pressure that they’re able to keep on oil prices.”
Iran is reported to have asked India to release three tankers seized in February following negotiations over the safe passage of India-bound vessels out of the strait, according to Reuters.
Indian authorities seized the Iran-linked ships near Indian waters, alleging they had concealed or altered their identities and were involved in illegal ship-to-ship transfers at sea.
Meanwhile, Iraq’s oil minister said Baghdad is in contact with Iran to allow some oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the state news agency reported on Tuesday.
Here’s what we know about the oil getting out of the Strait of Hormuz.
What do we know about the Karachi oil tanker?
The Lorax, a Pakistan-flagged ship carrying a crude blend called DAS from Abu Dhabi, had its AIS on to transit the strait, according to Mr Wright.
“We don’t have confirmation, but it does suggest that this vessel was probably asked to keep its AIS on and was probably guided by Iran through the strait,” he said. “We can only speculate as to why that necessarily happened, but it could be so that they can ensure the vessel’s safety.”
The Lorax took an unusual route out of the strait. Typically, tankers are forced to tackle a hairpin bend, but the ship went north around the small island of Larak on the Iranian side before exiting.
Mr Wright added that this could have been directed as the safest route out of the strait.
“There’s been a lot of discussion about some of the waters being mined,” he added. “Nobody has, as far as I’m aware, got definitive proof that the strait has been mined. But this transit is an interesting one.”
What other ships have successfully crossed out of the strait?
At least 20 non-Iranian oil ships have exited the strait since the war began, according to Kpler. The vast majority of these ships have switched off their AIS, which is used for collision avoidance and vessel monitoring in the maritime industry.
According to Mr Wright, a lot of sanctioned vessels will switch off their AIS if they aren’t in a war zone to “go dark” while handing sanctioned cargo to hide their identity or the origin of what they’re carrying.
“What we’ve seen for non-Iranian cargoes leaving the region,” he explained. “They will go dark and then they will reappear on the other side and the thinking is it’s much harder to track and maybe fire on a vessel that’s not broadcasting its AIS.”
Many of the vessels making the transit are run by more “risk-tolerant” companies, such as the Greek company Dynacom.
The SMYRNI oil tanker, owned by Dynacom, is willing to take the risk of transiting Hormuz, according to Mr Wright.
“Because the rates are very, very high,” he explained. “They’ve done at least one, if not two more, since this started.”
Last week, Turkey said that a dry cargo ship had passed through the strait with permission.
Where are these ships going?
According to Mr Wright, a lot of the Iranian oil will go to China, while much of the non-Iranian oil has gone to India and Pakistan.
“The Lorax is Pakistan, but then some of the others that have gone on the Dynacom ships went to India,” he said.
“The Dynacom ships loaded at Saudi or UAE and went to India. All of the non-sanctioned oil is going to India and Pakistan.”
What ships are stuck in the strait?
As of 16 March, 743 cargo ships are currently estimated to be trapped in the Gulf thanks to Iran’s iron grip over the Strait of Hormuz. But according to Mr Wright, this number has fluctuated.
“It’s come down from 778. We’ve got more vessels that have left than come in,” he said. “With the AIS blackout, it’s pretty hard to know. There’s definitely been more exit.
“We have had some vessels come in. For example, six of these Dynacom tankers have come in, which is half of the 12 tankers that have come in total.”
