Footage from the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines flight JS-8243 shows the plane’s tail peppered with holes.
Thirty-eight passengers and crew died when the plane, travelling from the airline’s hub at Baku to Grozny, the capital of Russia‘s Chechnya, crashed short of Aktau airport in Kazakhstan; 29 survived.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said analysis of the crashed plane’s fragments indicates a 90-99 per cent probability that it was hit by a surface-to-air missile.
Russian air defences are alleged to have downed the plane, four sources with knowledge of early findings in Azerbaijan’s investigation told Reuters news agency.
Russia has dismissed accusations; its aviation watchdog suggested an early investigation found the pilot decided to change landing site after “a collision with birds”.