After a dramatic final round of Lions squad auditions, the selection hierarchy has had a major shake-up and some things have become crystal clear.
First, Maro Itoje should be named captain for the tour of Australia. He was already favourite for the role and his main rival, Caelan Doris, cut a stunned, dejected figure after Leinster’s shock home defeat by Northampton which reinforced the sense of an untimely Irish decline.
Itoje is also a certainty for the Lions Test XV and Doris is not quite in that exalted category. So, that has become – surely – a ‘no-brainer’ for Andy Farrell.
Ahead of the official squad announcement on Thursday, this column’s own version reflects a late English charge, but also an alarming lack of depth, notably in the back line.
That in turn means there is still a heavy reliance here on 10 Leinster players, which is far from ideal, as they may be haunted by their ordeal against the Saints.
Nevertheless, this is a squad who can and should conquer the Wallabies…
When Henry Pollock scorched to another stunning solo try against Leinster, it made him nigh-on impossible for Andy Farrell to ignore. He will make mistakes, but offers an innate brilliance
Maro Itoje should be captain for the tour of Australia and is a certainty for the Lions Test XV
After a dramatic final round of squad auditions, the selection hierarchy has had a shake-up
My Lions squad (38 players) for tour of Australia…
Back three: T Freeman (Eng), D Graham (Sco), H Keenan (Ire), B Kinghorn (Sco), J Lowe (Ire), D van der Merwe (Sco)
This is one of the problem areas for the Lions, partly due to the casualty list, which includes England pair George Furbank and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso.
Blair Kinghorn is also in recovery mode and is bound to be a late arrival on tour due to Toulouse commitments, but the Scot is the best full back available to Farrell, so he must be picked.
Tommy Freeman’s prolific form makes him a shoo-in, Hugo Keenan and James Lowe should go despite the Leinster debacle, and Duhan van der Merwe’s power running out wide can be a unique asset, provided he is close to a return to action. Darcy Graham can bring electric energy, pace and footwork, just edging out Mack Hansen.
Blair Kinghorn is in recovery mode and is bound to be late due to Toulouse commitments
Duhan van der Merwe’s power running can be a unique asset, provided he is close to a return
Centres: B Aki (Ire), R Henshaw (Ire), H Jones (Sco), G Ringrose (Ire), S Tuipulotu (Sco)
More trouble here for Farrell, as there are not enough pedigree contenders. Neither England nor Wales have anyone in the mix. Ollie Lawrence would have been a certainty to go, until he damaged an achilles which led to surgery and months away from the game.
Based on the desire for a gainline-busting 12 and a more elusive runner outside, Scotland captain Sione Tuipulotu is a Test front-runner even after months out of action, with Huw Jones the early favourite to partner him in red, as he often does so effectively in blue. Irish trio Bundee Aki, Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose have the complementary credentials to challenge the Scots.
Scotland captain Sione Tuipulotu is a Test front-runner even after months out of action
Half-backs: G Ford (Eng), J Gibson-Park (Ire), A Mitchell (Eng), F Russell (Sco), F Smith (Eng), T Williams (Wal)
At scrum-half, it seems clear cut. Jamison Gibson-Park has been a dynamo at the heart of all recent Irish peaks, so he is nailed on as the Test favourite, with Alex Mitchell next in line. Tomos Williams was part of Wales’ Six Nations ordeal, but he has illuminated the Premiership all season with Gloucester.
Right, fly-half. Big call. This column advocated Saturday’s game in Dublin being a shootout between Sam Prendergast and Fin Smith. Smith won the battle, so much so that he can threaten Finn Russell for the Test No 10 shirt. There are suspicions that Farrell Snr will pick son Owen for his experience and leadership, but the former England captain has struggled with injuries at Racing 92. George Ford is a leader with experience too and he is in stunning form. He should go as the third 10.
At scrum-half, it seems clear cut in the Lions picture. Jamison Gibson-Park (pictured) has been a dynamo at the heart of all recent Irish peaks, so he is nailed on as the Test favourite
Fin Smith (right) won the battle over Sam Prendergast and can threaten Finn Russell
Front row: L Cowan-Dickie (Eng), Z Fagerson (Sco), T Furlong (Ire), E Genge (Eng), J George (Eng), A Porter (Ire), P Schoeman (Sco), D Sheehan (Ire), W Stuart (Eng)
These days, Australia are not the set-piece pushovers they used to be, so the Lions will need clout and technical excellence to gain an advantage in scrum and line-out.
The props should be the top two in each of England, Ireland and Scotland. Ellis Genge and Will Stuart were outstanding in the Six Nations, amid an English scrum revival, and Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong are a formidable alliance for Ireland.
Zander Fagerson provides a solid platform for the Scots, and Pierre Schoeman is a forceful carrier. At hooker, Dan Sheehan is the stand-out, but England pair Jamie George and Luke Cowan-Dickie have Lions pedigree, plus set-piece assurance and defensive fire respectively.
They deserve to edge out Leinster reserve Ronan Kelleher.
The props should be the top two in each of England, Ireland and Scotland. Ellis Genge (pictured above in action for Bristol) and Will Stuart were outstanding in the Six Nations
Second row: T Beirne (Ire), O Chessum (Eng), M Itoje (Eng), capt), D Jenkins (Wal), J McCarthy (Ire)
Itoje’s status as captain-in-waiting is partly a reflection of his imperious position at the heart of any first-choice Lions pack. It is the England skipper plus one as the Test locks. Joe McCarthy can act as an enforcer, while his Ireland team-mate Tadhg Beirne is a breakdown specialist.
Either could partner Itoje, or Beirne could end up at blindside.
Ollie Chessum has athleticism, aerial ability and leadership credentials and there is space for one more lock. If he was fit and firing, George Martin should go, but that might be a risk, so Dafydd Jenkins could make the squad.
Itoje’s status as captain-in-waiting is partly a reflection of his imperious position at the heart of any first-choice Lions pack. It is the England skipper plus one as the Test locks
Ollie Chessum has athleticism, aerial ability and leadership credentials so deserves a spot
Back row: J Conan (Ire), T Curry (Eng), C Doris (Ire), B Earl (Eng), C Lawes (Eng), J Morgan (Wal), H Pollock (Eng)
When Henry Pollock scorched round the flailing Prendergast, on his way to another stunning solo try on Saturday, it made him nigh-on impossible for Andy Farrell to ignore. What a talent. He will make mistakes, but offers an innate brilliance and a belief that he can do anything. That game in Dublin was a Test match in club shirts, so why can’t he represent the Lions? Let him loose.
It is harsh to omit Jack Willis, but a late arrival from Toulouse in an area of close calls seems significant. Tom Curry could operate on either flank and Jac Morgan is a rare beacon of Welsh hope. He just edges out Ben Curry. Caelan Doris is the likely Test No 8 and Jack Conan over Tom Willis and Taulupe Faletau was a marginal call, to say the least. No doubt at blindside: bring Courtney Lawes.
