The World Cup dream is very much alive for Steve Clarke and his Scotland players. After taking four points from their opening two qualifiers, there is renewed optimism around the national team.
A belief that the long wait could finally be coming to an end, and a growing sense of confidence that a first World Cup appearance since 1998 is now firmly within our grasp.
Yet, despite the feelings of positivity doing the rounds among the Tartan Army at the moment, it’s a very different story for Scotland’s Under-21s.
It looks very much like yet another qualification campaign is set to go down the drain after Scot Gemmill’s youngsters opened their Euro 2027 qualifiers with back-to-back defeats against Czech Republic and Portugal.
Scotland sit bottom of a group that also contains Bulgaria, Azerbaijan and Gibraltar, with Portugal and the Czechs now firm favourites to go on and secure qualification. Even more sobering is a look at Gemmill’s numbers and overall record since he took charge of the 21s back in 2016.
All in all, Gemmill has won just 18 of his 62 matches in charge. He has failed on four occasions to qualify for a major tournament, with it looking highly probable that record will now extend to five. Yet, still, the SFA persist with him. They continue to put their faith in a coach whose track record was unproven beyond Under-17 level in the national setup.
Scot Gemmill has been in charge of the Scotland Under-21s for nine years
However, Gemmill has only mustered 18 victories during that time, from 62 matches
Ben Gannon-Doak has progressed to the senior side but did that have much to do with his short spell in the Under-21s?
Why does a coach who has overseen nine years of failure continue to be rewarded and supported by his bosses at the SFA? In any serious footballing nation, he would have been shown the door long before now.
There is precious little on Gemmill’s CV to suggest he is a coach of any pedigree. His record is dreadful. Other than a famous family name and his connections within the SFA, why is he still in a job?
Despite a woeful record over nearly a decade in the role, he is bulletproof. For reasons best known to himself and the SFA, Gemmill has the safest job in Scottish football.
Gemmill will no doubt point to the likes of Ben Gannon-Doak and Billy Gilmour as two of the most prominent examples in recent years of the pathway from the 21s to the senior team. The head coach has also been on record over the past year as saying that the primary function of the 21s is to help develop players for Clarke.
That is broadly correct. But what players can Gemmill actually claim to have developed? His teams lose games and play poorly more often than not. There is no discernible style of play.
The likes of Gannon-Doak and Gilmour have gone on to shine for the national team in spite of Gemmill, not because of him.
They are players of such outstanding talent that it wouldn’t really have mattered who was coaching them for a handful of appearances with the 21s. They were also going to move up to bigger and better things.
Gemmill has never led the Under-21s to a major tournament during his time in charge
Gannon-Doak won just seven caps for Gemmill’s team. Gilmour won 12. Josh Doig and Max Johnston, 10 caps each. Lewis Ferguson, 11 caps. Kieron Bowie, the great young hope of a homegrown striker, won seven caps before being swiftly elevated to the national team.
This is a huge problem. Compared to other countries with a far better record in developing young players, Scotland, for whatever reason, don’t give players that base of 20-plus caps at Under-21 level.
It is all very scattergun. There is no obvious alignment between the 21s and the national team, other than the odd standout player whose talent makes it impossible for them to be overlooked.
There is a cultural issue that has surrounded Gemmill and the 21s for years. When he was breaking through, Aaron Hickey routinely pulled out of squads because he did not view it as beneficial to his development.
That’s a fairly damning indictment of the current coaching setup. Yet nothing has ever been done to address this cycle of repeated failure under Gemmill. Just last year, a report from the SFA concluded that clubs in Scotland are failing in their efforts to develop young players.
The governing body stated that the Scottish football was ‘significantly underachieving its potential’ in youth development compared to countries of a similar size.
Using a range of data to compare leagues across Europe, it showed that players under the age of 21 in Scotland were playing fewer minutes in the top flight than countries such as Denmark, Norway, and Croatia.
Game time for young Scottish players in major European club competitions also ranked below countries with smaller populations and fewer resources, such as Montenegro and North Macedonia.
The report also highlighted failings among the clubs in terms of strategy and their overarching approach to developing homegrown players.
It made for very interesting reading and it was hard to disagree with most of it. But the fact that clubs need to do more doesn’t excuse Gemmill’s own failings as head coach of the 21s.
As player, Gemmill played for Nottingham Forest, pictured here closing down Eric Cantona
When that report came out last year, he claimed that there would be ‘no silver bullet’ with regards to improvements in how we nurture young talent. Again, undeniably true.
But no one is asking for a silver bullet. What we are asking for is a Scotland Under-21s team who can compete and reach the odd tournament now and again.
Experience of tournament football is what really accelerates a young player’s development in the national setup. Just look at what England have done in recent years.
Scotland are miles away from that. They had a chance to qualify for Euro 2025, but bottled it by losing a must-win qualifier against Kazakhstan last year.
Our 21s haven’t reached a tournament since 1996. So, in all fairness to Gemmill, this is an issue which extends back to before he arrived on the scene.
But he is showing nothing to suggest he can buck the trend. With another qualification campaign set down go down the drain after only two matches, it’s screaming out for fresh ideas and a new head coach.
