Borrowing fell last month to its lowest November level for four years but was still higher than expected as figures for the year so far were pushed higher due to the Government’s U-turn on winter fuel payments.
Official figures showed borrowing stood at £11.7 billion last month, £1.9 billion less than in November last year and the lowest for that month since 2021 thanks to a sharp fall in debt interest payments.
But the figure was more than the £10.3 billion expected by most economists and the £8.6 billion forecast in March by the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
The OBR’s monthly forecasts from the budget on November 26 are not available until mid-January, according to the ONS.
Borrowing for the eight months of the financial year so far was £132.3 billion, £10 billion higher than the same period a year ago and £16.8 billion higher than the OBR forecast in March.
This was partly due to an extra £1.8 billion of spending on winter fuel payments after the Government U-turned on its previous decision to severely restrict payments through means testing, instead opting to give the payout to all pensioners except those earning above £35,000 a year.
This helped drive an upward revision to borrowing for the seven months to October by £3.9 billion.
ONS senior statistician Tom Davies said: “Despite an increase in spending, this month’s borrowing was the lowest November for four years.
“The main reason for the drop from last year was increased receipts from taxes and National Insurance contributions.”
November’s figure was pushed lower thanks to falling debt interest payments on borrowing, down by £200 million year-on-year to £3.4 billion and the lowest November level for six years.
Public sector net debt, including the Bank of England, reached £2.93 trillion at the end of November, which is around 95.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) and 0.3 percentage points more than a year ago, although remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s.
Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said there was “very little Christmas cheer for the Chancellor” in the latest borrowing figures.
He added: “Ms Reeves has staked much fiscal credibility on chunky tax increases in the back end of the forecast period. But we think today’s figures further illustrate the shaky foundations of that gamble.
“Revenues continue to underperform, and the smorgasbord approach of tax increases relies on distortionary tax increases with uncertain yields.
“We also have serious doubts about the Government’s ability to follow through on the raft of spending cuts announced in the Budget.”
Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray said the debt interest payments underscored the need to bring borrowing down.
He said: “£1 in every £10 we spend goes on debt interest – money that could otherwise be invested in public services.
“That is why last month the Chancellor set out a Budget that delivers on our pledge to cut debt and borrowing.”
Martin Beck at WPI Strategy said “confidence remains the missing ingredient”.
“A clear and credible pro-growth strategy from the Government – and an end to the pervasive gloom surrounding the UK economy – may matter just as much for the public finances as the fine print of future tax and spending plans,” he said.
