Gorton and Denton is a constituency of two halves.
On the east, the Gorton side, there are diverse suburbs of the city of Manchester, which are home to large student and Muslim populations.
Denton meanwhile, located in the borough of Tameside, is a largely working-class post-industrial town and has a much older population, who are almost 91 per cent white. Once a hive of textile production and coal mining, it has – like many towns in the north west – borne the brunt of deindustrialisation.
These two very different areas make up the country’s 15th most deprived seat, where the challenges of living in modern Britain are laid bare. The neighbouring areas share a sense of disappointment, verging on anger.
Voters in the constituency will go to the polls for a crunch by-election on Thursday – one which could bring the curtain down on Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership and have a lasting impact on the makeup of British politics.
This constituency –and its previous iterations – has long been a brick in Labour’s Red Wall. Even when Boris Johnson convinced so many lifelong Labour voters to back his Conservative Party, with a promise to “get Brexit done”, voters here remained loyal to the region’s political traditions.
But the disillusionment felt among its residents could herald a new political era, redefining the age-old battle between the left and right.
Now retired, then-Labour MP Andrew Gwynne was elected with a 13,000 vote majority at the 2024 general election – ahead of Reform UK and the Green Party in second and third.
Those runners up now have the seat well and truly in their sights. Labour has everything to lose and faces a fierce fight to hold on.
Voters have told The Independent they feel let down by Sir Keir Starmer’s government. They think they have already been forgotten about by a party that this constituency has always been loyal to, and helped elect 19 months ago.
There is no love lost for the prime minister and the decision to block the popular Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing as the Labour candidate went down badly.
Taxi driver Muhammed Basharat, 61, from Levenshulme on the Gorton side, said he will be voting for the Green Party partly due to disappointment with Labour.
“They let down many people – the tax rises, they cut benefits, there are many things they are doing”, he said.
“The people are not happy. You speak to people in the street, the British people they’re not happy with them.”
Mobile hairdresser Caterina Pandolfo, 65, said there was a feeling that Gorton and Denton had been “forgotten”. “I think it’s quite sad”, she said. “It’s got worse.” She hoped a Labour government could go some way to addressing that, but doesn’t believe it has.
She said: “I don’t think he’s doing very well at all, Keir Starmer, sadly. He could have done so much.”
Over in Denton, lifelong Labour voters John Harrison, 71, Sheila Harrison, 69, said they would not vote for the party again.
Sheila, who described Britain as “broken”, said Keir Starmer doesn’t represent towns like hers, though she would have voted for Mr Burnham.
For John, it’s a case of broken promises.
“Labour isn’t really doing what you know they said that it was going to do in the manifesto”, he said, adding that he feels let down by the government.
Despite that, one change in the Labour Party could win them back. “I would have voted for Andy Burnham”, John said.
He said Burnham has more personality and is able to connect with northern voters. He believes the Greater Manchester mayor is on his side in a way that Starmer, who he describes as “aloof”, is not. Sheila would agree,
Hoping to take advantage of this feeling of abandonment in a Labour heartland are Reform UK candidate – GB News presenter Matthew Goodiwn – and the Green nominee Hannah Spencer.
The Independent requested an interview with Mr Goodwin and contacted Reform for comment.
The Independent had revealed that Mr Goodwin suggested that people who don’t have children should be taxed extra as punishment in an unearthed blog post and that he called for women and young girls to be given a “biological reality” check, as he gave his views on how Britain should tackle its impending “fertility crisis”.
Polling suggests Mr Goodwin is expected to perform well in Denton, while support for plumber and councillor Ms Spencer in Gorton is evident from the posters and signs on display.
Ms Spencer believes that the by-election is the beginning of a battle between a new left and right in British politics – now represented by her party and Nigel Farage’s Reform in place of Labour and the Conservatives.
“I think people are rejecting that old system of two-party politics and looking for an alternative”, she told The Independent.
“What’s happened in the last couple of years shows that change in the political system can happen quite quickly.”
Ms Spencer believes this has been exacerbated by Labour’s bruising time in power. Though the party has seen a recent uptick in national opinion polls, it still trails to Reform and the prime minister’s approval ratings remain low.
“At the last general election, it felt like it was one last chance that Labour were being given”, she said, adding: “They ran under a banner of change, and has anything actually changed?”
That feeling is particularly acute in an area like this, Ms Spencer believes.
She said: “I think it hurts harder, when you feel like you’ve fallen for the person who was going to help you.”
Labour’s candidate, councillor Angeliki Stogia, insisted a vote for anyone but her could hand the seat to Mr Goodwin as she defended her party’s record in government.
She said: “In terms of Reform, we’re fighting every door. We’ve got policies, we’re listening to residents on the ground and what they want, and what they want is real action.
“They don’t want shouting from the sidelines. The real issues that people are bringing forward are cost of living, issues that surround the neighbourhoods and communities.”
“I am the best person to deliver on that”, she added.
As for criticism of the government’s record, she said: “I understand that, and the prime minister has said that we need to go faster and we need to go deeper in terms of delivering these changes.
“We’ve been in government for 18 months. Things take a lot of time to change.”
Last May, just 35 miles away in Runcorn and Helsby, Reform’s Sarah Pochin was elected by six votes. There is a suggestion here that Labour and the Green Party could split the vote on the left here and open the door for Reform to win another seat in the region.
But asked if the two parties could forge a progressive alliance, Ms Spencer was not interested.
“I don’t view them as a progressive force at all”, she said.
“I think they’re so far removed from what they ever were, that I find it really hard to see how, even with making some changes, they would be someone that we would work with.”
Instead, she believes her party leader Zack Polanski should have his eyes on Downing Street.
“I think it is definitely possible that at the next general election we could be looking at a Green government”, she said.
“I think we’ve shown in the last six months, the amount of new members that we’ve got that have joined, the amount of people that are coming out to help in elections like this shows that there’s a real appetite for change.”
What Ms Spencer and Ms Stogia do agree on, however, is Reform. Asked about the possibility of Nigel Farage’s party winning in this constituency, Ms Stogia said: “I think that people’s voices are not going to be listened to.
“I think that division will take root in our communities, and I think that a Reform MP is not going to lean in and listen and work with communities to resolve issues in the area.”
For Ms Spencer, a vote for the Greens is one for “hope”, rather than “division” with Reform.
“It’s a really diverse constituency with different people from a lot of different backgrounds, but with a shared value of looking after each other”, she said.
“It’s a very Greater Manchester thing that people do just muddle along, even if you sometimes believe in slightly different things like you do look after each other.”
