Gorton and Denton by-election live: Polls close in pivotal three-way battle between Labour, Greens and Reform – UK Times

The Greens said they gave Labour “the scare of their lives” in Gorton and Denton as they expressed confidence that “the Green vote has held up well”.

A source from Zack Polanski’s party told the Press Association: “We feel like we’ve thrown everything at this election. We’ve given it our all.

“I think at the very least we can say we’ve given Labour the scare of their lives in what not so long ago was considered one of their safest seats in the country.”

They added: “I think it’s fair to say that we’re feeling quite confident that despite Labour’s we feel really pretty dirty tactics through the campaign and despite this very well funded Reform machine, but we’ve seen today that the Green vote has held up well.”

Labour has presented the election as a battle between it and Reform, but a loss to either Reform or the Greens would undermine its claim to be the safest anti-Reform option.

The party acknowledged that by-elections are challenging for those in power.

In a statement released as polls closed, Labour’s political lead for the contest, Andrew Western, said: “Angeliki Stogia and our fantastic Labour team have run a positive local campaign focused on bringing communities together in Manchester and Tameside, firmly rejecting the toxic politics of Reform’s Matthew Goodwin.

“By-elections are always difficult for incumbent governments and this one has been no different. The politics of anger and easy answers offered by Reform and the Greens won’t deliver the change communities want to see on the cost of living, or on fixing our NHS.”

The outcome would have “huge consequences going forward for narratives” even if it may rest on “a handful of votes”, said Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, a research company and consultancy.

He told the Press Association: “If the Greens win, or come second to Reform with Labour in third, it becomes much harder for Labour to run that so-called (Emmanuel) Macron strategy. Essentially, you have to hold your nose and vote for us, because otherwise you’ll let Reform in, which I think they’re relying on.

“On the flip side, if Labour win, you know, it kind of turbo-charges that strategy for them.

“If Reform are able to sneak through the middle, it would suggest that tactical voting is either cancelling each other out or just isn’t enough to stop Reform.”

He added that if Reform is trumped by the other parties, their national polling lead “doesn’t matter if the other parties can coalesce to block them”.

Nigel Farage said a report of high levels of family voting in the Gorton and Denton by-election “raises serious questions about the integrity of the democratic process in predominantly Muslim areas”.

Family voting is an illegal practice where two voters either confer, collude or direct each other on voting and can involve husbands telling their wives how to vote.

The leader of Reform UK, which was in a tight three-way race with Labour and the Greens, said on X: “Incidents of family voting in Gorton & Denton reached the highest levels of any election in the past 10 years says @SkyNews.

“This is deeply concerning and raises serious questions about the integrity of the democratic process in predominantly Muslim areas.”

An election observer group Democracy Volunteers raised concerns of family voting. They said they attended 22 of the 45 polling stations in the constituency, spending 30 to 45 minutes in each, and witnessed family voting in 15 of the 22 polling stations observed.

The group said they observed a sample of 545 individuals casting their vote and saw 32 cases of family voting in total, including nine cases in one polling station.

John Ault, director of Democracy Volunteers, said: “Today we have seen concerningly high levels of family voting in Gorton and Denton. Based on our assessment of today’s observations, we have seen the highest levels of family voting at any election in our 10-year history of observing elections in the UK.

“We rarely issue a report on the night of an election, but the data we have collected today on family voting, when compared to other recent by-elections, is extremely high.

“In the other recent Westminster parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby we saw family voting in 12 per cent of polling stations, affecting 1 percent of voters. In Gorton and Denton, we observed family voting in 68 per cent of polling stations, affecting 12 per cent of those voters observed.”

Britain Elects, the UK’s largest poll aggregator has forecasted the Green party to win with an estimate of 31 per cent.

Followed closely by Reform with 30% and Labour in third at 29%.

The Independent’s political editor, David Maddox reports:

This is the by-election where who comes third is almost as important as who wins.

If Labour come third behind the Greens and Reform in what was its seventh safest seat it could prove terminal for Keir Starmer’s premiership and would be a serious shock to the party suggesting no seat is safe.

But for Reform and Nigel Farage coming third would be equally disastrous. It would show that even with a split vote on the left they were still polling behind the other two parties in an area they hoped to win.

The result would raise serious questions about Reform’s big showing in the polls and whether it is over inflated.

For the Greens coming third would be disappointing but not disastrous. They have been favourites to win and it means that historic first by-election victory still eludes them. It also raises questions over how much support they really are taking off Labour.

The Independent’s Millie Cooke reports:

Zack Polanski and his team have arrived at the count – the first party leader to be seen here so far.It’s unusual for a party leader to show up to a by-election until it has become clear they’ve won.

At the Runcorn by-election last year, there were even rumours that Nigel Farage was circling round the block in his car waiting until there was a clear indication that Reform had clinched it, hesitant to be caught in the building in the event of a loss for his party.

But Mr Polanski – who is expected to leave again after doing a few media interviews – has very little to lose tonight. The fact that he’s even in the running is a victory in itself for the Greens.

Polls have closed in the Gorton and Denton by-election, where Sir Keir Starmer is attempting to cling onto a key seat in Labour’s heartlands.

The Independent’s Millie Cooke reports:

A fierce race has been fought between Labour, the Greens and Reform – with each party trying to convince voters that they have a shot at winning.If Sir Keir’s party loses tonight – and especially if they come third behind Reform and the Greens – it will reignite questions over his beleaguered leadership of the Labour party and the direction of the government.

But if Labour manages to hold on to the seat, it could buy him some much needed time.

Ministers and MPs from all parties have been trawling the area, filling letterboxes with campaign leaflets and trying to win over local residents with their policies and candidates.

Labour has thrown everything at Thursday’s vote, with more than 1,000 activists expected to travel to the constituency, which Sir Keir visited on Monday in a sign of apparent optimism about the result.

The Independent’s political reporter Athena Stavrou reports: