Germany election results 2025 – latest: Exit poll predicts CDU win as far-right AfD surges – UK Times

Exit polls have now been published, suggesting frontrunner Friedrich Merz’s conservative CDU party have come out well in front, as the far-right AfD make large gains.

The CDU/CSU bloc won first place with 28.5 per cent of the vote, followed by AfD with 20 per cent, a record for the far-right party, the public broadcaster ZDF reported.

Scholz’s centre-left SPD garnered 16.5 per cent of the vote, its worst-ever result, the projection showed.

The polls are set to close at 5pm GMT, at which point vote counting to begin and exit polls will be published.

The general picture is expected to become clear fairly quickly this evening, but the final official result is not expected until early on Monday.

While all eyes are on the far right, it will be the fate of smaller parties which likely decides the shape of Germany’s next government.

If his CDU/CSU party emerges victorious, frontrunner Friedrich Merz will be hoping to form a two-party coalition as opposed to being forced to find two other parties with whom to ally and form a majority.

However, a three-party coalition will be more likely if smaller parties such as the Free Democrats (FDP) and far-left Die Linke reach the 5 per cent threshold to win seats, fragmenting the seat allocation.

A 33-year-old German man has brandished a knife at a polling station in the western city of Krefeld, police have said.

Police said the man appeared to be “mentally disturbed” and accused the election workers of election manipulation. After leaving the polling station, the person threatened another person. He showed a knife, but did not use it, police said.

The suspect is now facing criminal proceedings and an investigation is ongoing, police said.

Germany’s federal returning officer has announced that, as of 2pm local time, 52 per cent of eligible voters had cast their ballots at a polling station, Die Welt reports.

This compared with 36.5 per cent at the same time during the last election in 2021, however a large number of people voted using postal ballots – which are not included in the figures – due to the pandemic during that election.

During the previous election in 2017, 41.1 per cent of eligible voters had voted as of 2pm.

Mainstream German parties say they won’t work with any far-right parties threatening democracy, a postwar stance often referred to as a “firewall”.

That includes the Alternative for Germany (AfD). However, frontrunner Friedrich Merz has drawn criticism – and protests – after his CDU/CSU party brought a non-binding motion to parliament calling for many more migrants to be turned back at Germany’s borders.

The motion was approved thanks to votes from AfD – marking a first in post-war Germany which prompted opponents to accuse Mr Merz of breaking the firewall, which he denies. “We will under no circumstances discuss any talks, never mind negotiations or a participation in government, with AfD,” Mr Merz insisted on Saturday.

During his visit to the Munich Security Conference earlier this month, US vice president JD Vance said there was no place for firewalls, drawing strong criticism from German leaders.

The incumbent SPD party has hit out at remarks made by frontrunner Friedrich Merz in his campaign finale yesterday, in which the CDU-CSU candidate claimed: “The left is over. There is no longer a left-wing majority and no more left-wing politics in Germany. It’s over. It’s no longer possible.”

According to Der Spiegel, SPD general secretary Matthias Miersch has now responded by saying: “That’s how a mini-Trump speaks.”

There is no formal referee for the process of forming a new government, and no set time limit.

Conservative leader and front-runner Friedrich Merz has said he hopes to form a new government by mid-April if he wins.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s outgoing government will remain in office on a caretaker basis until the Bundestag elects the new chancellor.

While a federal interim figure on voter turnout is not expected until later this afternoon, some states have now published some early statistics which are being reported by German news outlets.

As of midday in Saxony, 27.1 percent of those eligible to vote had cast ballots, compared with 25.8 per cent at the same time in the previous 2021 election.

In Lower Saxony, that figure was 43 percent, compared with 36.6 percent in 2021.

There was an even more dramatic increase in Saxony-Anhalt, where 37.1 per cent of those eligible had voted by midday, compared with 26.5 per cent at the same time in 2021.

However, in the northermost state of Schleswig-Holstein, as of 11am, 21.3 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballots, which was down slightly from 23.8 per cent in 2021.

Bayern Munich powerbroker Uli Hoeness has said he would speak with any of the football club’s players who support the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Mr Hoeness, who is Bayern’s honorary president after more than 40 years at the forefront of the club, told Kicker magazine that he would question any AfD-supporting player “and ask him if he still has all his tools in his toolbox”.

He added: “Bayern is a wonderful role model for migration and integration. More than half of our youth players have a migration background.”

Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz has now cast his vote, visiting a polling station in Potsdam alongside his wife Britta Ernst.

The CDU/CSU’s candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has also cast his ballot at a polling station in Arnsberg.