France is heading to the ballot box today in one of its most significant elections in years, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right party hoping for a historic victory.
Opinion polls are forecasting that the National Rally (RN) will win most of the votes but fall short of a majority – plunging the country into a chaotic hung parliament weeks before the Paris Olympic Games.
It is the first time the French far-right have had a realistic chance of taking control of the National Assembly following their victory in the first-round of the snap elections.
After the shock result, centrist and leftist parties joined forces in a bid to hinder the anti-immigration party’s chances.
President Emmanuel Macron called the vote four weeks ago in response to the RN’s victory in the European election but now faces the possibility of his authority being severely dented.
Voting began across France at 8am local time and exit polls are expected 12 hours later. Le Pen and the RN’s leader Jordan Bardella need a 289-seat majority to allow them to claim the prime minister’s job.
Voter turnout highest since 1981 as of 5pm
As of 5pm local time, turnout was at 59.7 per cent, according to France’s Interior Ministry, the highest at that time on the voting day since 1981.
During the first round, the nearly 67 per cent turnout was the highest since 1997, ending nearly three decades of deepening voter apathy for legislative elections and, for a growing number of French people, politics in general.
Andy Gregory7 July 2024 16:17
Results come in from French Overseas territories
In the restive French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, a pro-independence Indigenous Kanak candidate has won a seat over a loyalist candidate in the second round of voting.
Emmanuel Tjibaou is a political novice and a son of a well-known Kanak independence leader, Jean-Marie Tjibaou, who was assassinated in 1989. He is the first pro-independence candidate to win a seat in the National Assembly since 1986.
Right-wing candidate and French loyalist Nicolas Metzdorf has won New Caledonia’s second parliament seat.
Jabed Ahmed7 July 2024 16:00
Economists and financial markets rattled by RN
Financial markets were rattled by Mr Macron’s election gamble last month.
The CAC 40 stock market in Paris sank 6 per cent within days and French government bonds were sold off, as investors fled to safer alternatives.
The RN has watered down some of its frontline economic policy pledges to shore up household spending and lower the retirement age, constrained by France‘s ballooning budget deficit.
They also pledge to reduce immigration, loosen legislation to expel illegal migrants and tighten rules around family reunification.
French asset prices have risen on expectations the RN won’t win a majority, with banking shares up and the risk premium investors demand to hold French debt narrowing.
However, France‘s business elite is anxious about the risk of volatile politics and instability ahead, and economists question whether the RN’s hefty spending plans are fully funded.
Jabed Ahmed7 July 2024 15:45
When will the results be announced?
Voting ends at 8pm local time (7pm BST), when pollsters publish nationwide projections based on a partial vote count.
These are usually reliable, with official results coming in from 8pm.
Vote counting is usually quite fast and the winners of all, or nearly all, seats will be known by the end of the evening.
Jabed Ahmed7 July 2024 15:25
Election marred by violence
France’s election campaign has seen more than 50 violent attacks on candidates and activists, a senior government minister has warned.
Some luxury boutiques along the Champs Elysees boulevard, including the Louis Vuitton store, have barricaded windows.
Jabed Ahmed7 July 2024 14:42
Voters say they are ‘mad at the government’ for calling an election
President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election after he was thrashed by the far-right in European Parliament elections last month.
“I’m mad at the government and in particular at the president that they have taken this irresponsible risk,” Frederic Maillard, a doctor from the central town of Tours, told Reuters.
“The country is facing three radically opposed views of society”, said Olivier Grisal, a retiree, as he walked towards his polling site in the middle-class town of Conflans Sainte-Honorine, west of Paris, with his wife.
Ranaivoatisan Voahirana, who works in the medical sector, said she voted for the government’s candidate but was “almost certain” the National Rally would win.
“People won’t bother to hide their racism any more”, she said.
Jabed Ahmed7 July 2024 14:35
How likely is a far right victory?
In the first round of voting last week, RN placed first with more a third of the vote.
However, the chances of RN winning an outright majority has fallen significantly this week, as centrist and left-wing parties banded together to keep the far-right away from power.
In a chaotic week between the two rounds, more than 200 centrist and left-wing candidates pulled out of races to boost the chances of their moderate rivals and try keep RN candidates from winning.
The latest polls published on Friday still projected a win for the National Rally, with 170 to 205 seats in the new chamber, compared to 88 in the outgoing chamber.
This means they will place first but below the absolute majority threshold set at 289 seats.
Jabed Ahmed7 July 2024 13:20
France’s North African doctors consider emigration amid rise of far right
Read the full article here:
Jabed Ahmed7 July 2024 13:10
ICYMI: French election campaign rocked by violence
France’s election campaign has seen more than 50 violent attacks on candidates and activists, a senior government minister has warned, as the country braces for a crunch final round of voting.
Some 30,000 officers will be deployed to police the tense ballot on Sunday, including 5,000 in Paris, said interior minister Gerald Darminin – as France teeters on the brink of handing the far right its largest ever parliamentary victory.
Read the full report here:
Jabed Ahmed7 July 2024 13:00
What is the National Rally?
The National Rally (RN) is a nationalist and populist right-wing party, which has grown in popularity due to the rise of the right across Europe.
Until 2018, it was known as the National Front but, Marine Le Pen has sought to clean up the image of a party known for racism and antisemitism. This tactic has worked amid voter anger at Mr Macron, the high cost of living and growing concerns over immigration.
Founded in 1972 by Jean-Marie Le Pen, Ms Le Pen’s father, today the party is led by Jordan Bardella, a 28-year-old who has been fast-tracked to political leadership.
They are the single biggest opposition party with 88 MPs in the lower house of parliament.
Jabed Ahmed7 July 2024 12:47