Tuesday brings another big primary night for Democrats, this time in Illinois.
Given the land of Lincoln’s strong Democratic bent and the growing unpopularity of President Donald Trump, the primaries will likely be the major contest here.
And as Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war with Iran causes global instability, America’s relationship with Israel will likely play a huge role here.
Democrats have spent the last two and a half years having an often painful discussion around Israel. As the historic political home for Jewish Americans, the Democratic Party has long supported Israel. A Democratic president, Harry S. Truman, recognized the state of Israel in 1948.
But the war in Gaza caused a split between that older guard and the younger activist groups, who saw Israel’s response to the October 7th attack by Hamas as either a war crime, with others calling it a genocide.
The party has been slow to respond to these shifts. Two years ago when the party held its convention in Chicago, even many convention attendees said a Palestinian should be allowed to speak. Many Democrats hoped to tamp down the conversation and delay it until after President Joe Biden, who called himself an “Irish American Zionist,” left office and Kamala Harris defeated Trump.
That didn’t happen, and now, the conversation is breaking out into primaries. On Monday, NBC News released a poll showing that only 13 percent of Democratic voters have a positive view of Israel compared to 34 percent of Democrats in 2023. In addition, 67 percent of Democrats sympathize with Palestinians now compared to only 18 percent who did so in 2013.
This dynamic has already played out in New York City’s mayoral primary last year, where Zohran Mamdani beat the more pro-Israel Andrew Cuomo, though Valerie Foushee won in North Carolina’s 4th district despite Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam criticizing Rep. Valerie Foushee for taking money from The American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Inside Washington previewed this race a bit last month, but here’s a full breakdown. Grab a throwback Michael Jordan jersey and get ready for a rumble.
Illinois’ 9th primary has probably received the most attention. The district includes large Jewish communities, including Skokie, Illinois, where neo-Nazis famously marched in the 1970s. Kat Abughazaleh, a former journalist who is half Palestinian and who only recently moved to the district, announced she would run against Jan Schakowsky early in 2025.
Schakowsky, 81, would announce she would not seek re-election. She and many progressives in the area and nationally have gotten behind Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss. Like Abughazaleh, Biss, who is Jewish, has criticized Israel, though not as stridently as her. The Congressional Progressive Caucus and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have endorsed Biss as well.
But it’s been the presence of AIPAC-affiliated organizations like Elect Chicago Women and Chicago Progressive Partnership. Democratic consultant Frank Calabrese has compiled a spreadsheet showing Elect Chicago Women has spent almost $4.4 million to elect state Sen. Laura Fine and about $1.4 million to oppose Biss. In addition, the Chicago Progressive Partnership has spent money on an ad praising longshot candidate Bushra Amiwala to siphon votes from the left from Abughazalaeh.
While Illinois’ 9th district has received most of the attention, the 8th district is just as contentious and contains some of the same dynamics. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi is running for Senate, leaving his seat in the Chicago suburbs open. Like in the 9th, Elect Chicago Women has gotten behind the more moderate former congresswoman Melissa Bean, who is running for her old congressional seat. So far, it’s spent $3.9 million in support of Bean.
By contrast, the left is more consolidated behind one candidate in the 8th compared to the 9th. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) got behind Junaid Ahmed, as has Warren, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
The Chicago Progressive Partnership PAC has taken to a trick AIPAC used in New Jersey’s 11th district: accusing him of being insufficiently progressive, pointing to his personal wealth and stock investments. But this can also backfire since in New Jersey, their attempts to attack former Rep. Tom Malinowski from the left led to progressive activist Analilia Mejia winning the primary.
In Illinois’ 7th district a similar dynamic is playing out to replace Rep. Danny Davis. The United Democracy Project, which is affiliated with AIPAC, has spent more than $4.8 million to elect City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin to the seat. It’s also spent a little less than $60,000 against Jason Friedman, whom the pro-peace J Street’s PAC has endorsed.
That’s not the only seat that is open now. Rep. Robin Kelly’s decision to jump into the Senate race opens up another seat. Affordable Chicago Now, which is affiliated with AIPAC, has gotten behind Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller’s run. Progressive organizations and politicians have largely thrown their money behind Robert Peters.
But complicating all of this is the fact that Jesse Jackson Jr., the son of the late civil rights activist, is running for his old congressional seat. The younger Jackson resigned in 2012 due to a campaign finance scandal after being considered a rising star. Jackson’s father frequently spoke of the plight of the Palestinians, though the elder Jackson famously got in trouble for calling New York City “Hymietown.”
Of course, another factor in all of these races is the fact that AIPAC and Israel are not the only players. Fairshake, a pro-cryptocurrency PAC, is spending heavily in the state. A pro-AI PAC is getting behind Jackson. So it’s impossible to know exactly what factor will lift or quash a candidate.
But the fact that the debate is happening now reveals how internal civil wars about policy often happen while in the minority. And this likely won’t go away.
