It’s a tournament marked by explosive speed, quick decision–making and rapid changes in play – but the World Cup could be noticeably slower this year, scientists have warned.
Experts examined the odds of temperatures exceeding 28°C (82.4°F) – a threshold linked to declines in player performance – across the 104 scheduled matches this summer.
Overall, they discovered 93 per cent of games could be affected.
Previous research shows temperatures above this level can reduce sprint frequency, total distance covered by players, and recovery time.
This would impact not only player performance and safety but also match tempo, tactics and overall style of play.
The warning comes from the charity Climate Central, which has created an interactive tool that analyses how each team could be affected by heat.
And it’s bad news for England’s first match – as there is a 95 per cent chance of performance–impairing temperatures in their game against Croatia.
‘During the 2026 World Cup, we’ll likely see the real–time consequences of a warming world on this sport – heat that puts the health and performance of players at risk,’ the organisation said.
It’s bad news for England’s first match – as there is a 95 per cent chance of performance–impairing heat in their game against Croatia
If England makes it to the final, they will be playing in four matches with above 50 per cent odds of performance–impacting heat, the researchers said
Climate Central scientists used historical data to analyse the likelihood that daily temperatures will exceed the 28°C (82.4°F) performance–impairing threshold during the 104 World Cup matches.
They discovered warming caused by climate change is boosting the odds of debilitating heat by around eight per cent.
This year, the matches are being played in 16 stadiums across Canada, Mexico and the USA.
Across all matches, climate change boosts the odds of performance–impairing heat most during the June 26 match in Mexico between Uruguay and Spain, they found.
While England’s first match has a very high likelihood of performance–impairing heat, things appear cooler for their second match against Ghana, which has only a 16 per cent chance of high temperatures.
The third match in their group, against Panama, will see a 36 per cent chance of performance–impairing heat, the researchers said.
‘Within their group, England is the second most at risk, with a 49 per cent likelihood on average across their group–stage matches,’ they explained.
‘If England makes it to the final, they will be playing in four matches with above 50 per cent odds of performance–impacting heat.’
In a previous study, experts from World Weather Attribution modelled the conditions during every one of the 104 World Cup matches. Their results suggest that a quarter will be played in unsafe conditions, while five will be so hot that experts advise postponing them entirely
Players and fans will be subject to unbearable heat during many of the games. Pictured: the New York New Jersey Stadium
Extremely hot June–July days are on the rise in all but two of the 2026 World Cup stadiums, according to another recent Climate Central analysis.
Extreme heat can affect more than performance — it can pose a serious health risk, especially when combined with high humidity.
To keep players, fans, and staff safe, World Cup organizers are adapting to the rising heat risks with more evening matches in hotter cities and mandatory hydration breaks at all games.
Matches may be postponed if the wet–bulb globe temperature (WBGT) – a measurement of humid heat – hits 32°C (89.6°F) to minimize risks of heat stress.
But most stadiums are open–air, leaving players and millions of fans exposed to peak summer heat.
Only three stadiums are fully climate–controlled – Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston.
A separate group of researchers recently warned that players and fans will be subject to unbearable heat during many of the games.
Scientists from World Weather Attribution modelled the conditions during every one of the 104 matches.
The final in the New York New Jersey Stadium now faces a one in eight chance of exceeding the 26°C WBGT mark and a three per cent chance of hitting the more dangerous level of 28°C WBGT. For context, that’s around double the risk the final would have faced in 1994
Their results suggest that a quarter of the matches will be played in unsafe conditions, while five will be so hot that experts advise postponing them entirely.
Worryingly, many of these matches are scheduled in venues without air conditioning – including Miami, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia.
Unfortunately for some British fans, this includes Scotland’s clash with Brazil, which is scheduled to take place in Miami on 24 June.
‘The climate that the tournament is being played in today has fundamentally shifted in just 32 years,’ warned Dr Joyce Kimutai, an author of the study from Imperial College London.
‘While organisers have attempted to reduce the risk by scheduling some games in high–risk – uncooled – locations like Miami and Kansas City later in the day, there’s a very real risk that we’ll be faced with games taking place in conditions that are unsafe for players and fans.’
