It’s that time of the year again and it’s Formula 1 pre-season predictions time!
A new era is dawning in 2026 with new cars, new regulations and a new team in Cadillac. While Mercedes are the favourites – with George Russell the pick for the bookies – nobody truly knows what’s going to happen come the first race on 8 March in Melbourne.
Lando Norris won his first F1 world championship last year, but McLaren look to be a tad short of pace compared to Mercedes and Ferrari, who are full of optimism after a winless 2025 and a podium-less campaign for Lewis Hamilton.
We have a rookie on the grid in British 18-year-old Arvid Lindblad, driving for Red Bull’s junior team. And what about Max Verstappen? The Dutchman is chasing a fifth world title in six years, at a team who have built their own power unit for the first time alongside Ford.
Ahead of the season-opener in Melbourne, these are my predictions for 2026:
World champion – George Russell
I know, I know, not exactly bold, but Russell is undoubtedly now ready for a championship tilt.
The British driver, now in his fifth season at Mercedes, enjoyed his best-year in F1 last season, maximising every opportunity possible, with two wins and nine podiums. All he needs now is consistent race-winning machinery beneath him and, it seems, Mercedes are the leading outfit.
Constructors’ champions – Mercedes
Whispers in the paddock have long billed the Silver Arrows as the number one team – but the top-four remain closely bunched heading into Melbourne.
Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull are bang in contention, but Toto Wolff’s outfit have been eyeing these new set of regulations after a difficult four-year period. Given their experience and expertise, I back them to get it just about right.
Constructors’ wooden spoon – Cadillac
Anything higher than 11th place for F1’s newest team would be a monumental achievement.
Simply getting to the first test was a big achievement, something Williams couldn’t achieve, but the tests in Bahrain showed that Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas were well short on pace, regularly at the bottom of the timesheet.
Who finishes higher out of Hamilton or Leclerc at Ferrari?
Hamilton’s optimism ahead of race one is promising, but given his know-how at Ferrari and his dominance of the head-to-head last year, Leclerc is the favourite to win the Scuderia teammate battle.
It feels as if the Monegasque has gone slightly under the radar in pre-season. If Ferrari are competitive, he could have a genuine shot at his first world title.
Biggest shock: Fernando Alonso
Aston Martin look in a state of utter helplessness at the moment, amid their problems with new power-unit provider Honda.
Two-time world champion Alonso, 44, has been waiting for 2026 for some time as his final chance to perhaps launch one final championship tilt. Currently, it looks a million miles away.
So here goes my wild prediction: Alonso will lose patience and retire midway through the season, around the summer break.
Best underdog: Pierre Gasly
Alpine were bottom-of-the-table last year but, having ditched their in-house programme, they have taken on Mercedes engines. A wise move.
They look right at the top of the midfield in pre-season and, therefore, could be in contention for regular points. I’m not convinced by Franco Colapinto, but his teammate, Pierre Gasly, now in his ninth consecutive season, is extremely capable. I back him to register a podium.
Best race – Australia
Given the uncertainty of the new rules and new regulations, including the active aero, boost mode and overtake mode, the first race should be full of drama.
Expect lock-ups. Expect collisions. Expect the unknown. With 500,000 fans in the grandstands over the course of the race weekend, it should be a cracker.
