A gambling watchdog group has flagged the United States’ Round-of-16 loss to Belgium as one of seven World Cup matches that may have drawn irregular betting activity during the tournament.
Specifically, the independent Group of Copenhagen cited a predictions market line titled ‘Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?’ as one potential issue, sources told The Athletic.
That line opened on July 2 shortly after Balogun was given a controversial red card in Team USA’s Round-of-32 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina. On July 5, after President Donald Trump urged FIFA to rescind Balogun’s red card, the governing body opted instead to suspend his one-game ban until after the tournament, thereby allowing him to play in the loss to Belgium.
Curiously, the Group of Copenhagen’s report specified that no other similar markets opened for the 14 other players who got a red card during the tournament, according to The Athletic. Now the group has requested an official explanation from FIFA on the Balogun case.
The Daily Mail has sought comment from both FIFA and Polymarket, neither of which have been accused of any misconduct in this case.
Operating under the Council of Europe’s Macolin Convention of 2014, the Group of Copenhagen is an independent network that detects and prevents the manipulation of sports competitions around the world. For the 2026 World Cup, the organization reviewed all 104 matches from the tournament, which attracted more than $240 billion bets worldwide, according to the Group of Copenhagen.
Folarin Balogun (20) fouls Bosnia’s Tarik Muharemovic (4), resulting in a red card
Balogun was given a controversial red card in Team USA’s Round-of-32 win over Bosnia
Although its full report has not yet been published, a summary of its conclusions has been shared by the Council of Europe.
The US loss to Belgium was among seven ‘yellow notices’ raised by the Group of Copenhagen, which has two higher levels of concern: orange and red.
‘The Group of Copenhagen’s notices can be explained by atypical behaviors such as changes in odds or hedging liquidities, there are many explanations that are not manipulations,’ Christian Kalb, a gambling industry expert who previously worked with the Group of Copenhagen, told The Athletic.
‘The major problem is when there may be a conflict of interest and potential inside information on those issues,’ she continued. ‘When we speak of prediction markets, we can detect some unusual behaviors but we must be very careful as they can be used for hedging markets.
The Norwegian FA is planning to complain to FIFA over the Folarin Balogun World Cup saga
Meanwhile, the Norwegian FA plans to launch a formal complaint to FIFA over Trump’s interference in Balogun’s red card ban.
Despite Trump’s interventions, the US were thrashed 4-1 by Belgium, yet the 80-year-old has repeatedly boasted about his involvement, adding that FIFA President Gianni Infantino made a ‘great decision.’
The antics of Trump and FIFA were widely condemned across the sport, and Norwegian Football Federation (NFF) President Lise Klaveness now says she is planning to formally complain to the governing body’s ethics committee.
‘When you bend a rule like this, you’re on a slippery slope that will put the whole game at risk,’ she said. ‘It is a worry for the game when you compromise fundamental rules of the game.
‘First of all, it should not have happened. It is very important now to have honest communication around it. We all know that this verdict was influenced from external forces and did not have the proper process.
‘If you start to adapt in such a way towards state leaders and state politics, you will move your behavior and the organization’s behavior, and also the red line of what states’ leaders should interfere with. And that happened.’
Defending his role in the saga, Infantino insisted it was an independent decision taken by FIFA’s disciplinary committee.
He said: ‘They operate autonomously, apply the FIFA’s disciplinary code, and decide cases based on the applicable regulations and the specific facts before them.
‘Their independence is essential to the credibility and integrity of football, and this must always be respected.’
