Donald Trump turned out to be wrong, although it may not be tactful to point it out, because the world still needs him to support Ukraine, however grudgingly. But we told him that Vladimir Putin had no interest in making peace, and so it has proved.
President Trump thought he could persuade the Russian leader to cut a deal over Ukraine. That approach might not have been as misconceived as it sometimes seemed. It might have been possible that a combination of appeasement, flattery and strong-man talk would have worked. But Putin has shown that he is not interested in negotiation. His belief in a Greater Russia, and possibly his need to wage a permanent war in order to maintain his grip on power, means that the bloodshed will continue, and even Mr Trump can see where the blame lies.
It was encouraging, therefore, that Mr Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to avoid enhanced sanctions over the Ukraine war to “10 to 12 days” a few days ago. Mr Trump’s deadlines are notoriously variable, but the president’s meaning was clear.
Equally, Mr Trump’s war of words with Dmitry Medvedev, Putin’s associate and the former president of Russia, confirms that there is little common ground left between Washington and Moscow. The social media spat culminated in Mr Trump sending two United States nuclear submarines to patrol “near Russia” – after Medvedev warned the US against being drawn into direct conflict with a nuclear power.
Mr Trump should never have threatened to withdraw the US’s support for the Ukrainian people, but we should be grateful that he failed to follow through on that threat, even if the precise level of current US support for Volodymyr Zelensky’s war effort is shrouded in secrecy.
Maybe it was worth trying to do a deal with Putin, although it besmirched the reputation of American democracy that Mr Trump should have subjected Mr Zelensky – a brave leader fighting for his people in a noble cause – to that disgraceful theatrical display in the White House in February.
Maybe it was worth Mr Trump rudely waking the peoples of Europe to their responsibility to meet a greater share of the cost of defending their continent.
But it should never have been at the expense of the defence of the right of a free people to resist aggression. The international community bore, and continues to bear, a moral duty to defend democracy, human rights and the right to self-determination. All democracies should stand by the Ukrainian people in their time of need, however long that time shall be. No one wants the war to continue for a moment longer, but Mr Trump is now as clear as the rest of the world has been that Putin is responsible for prolonging the bloodshed. The war could end today if Putin wanted it to.
For all the capriciousness of the US president, and for all the bombast of his social media communications, it seems that Mr Trump understands that Putin, and his proxy Medvedev, must not be appeased. Sending US nuclear submarines to patrol “near Russia” is a symbolic gesture, but if what it symbolises is an increased willingness on the part of Mr Trump to support Ukraine against Putin’s aggression, then it is to be welcomed.
