The most recent torrential rains in east-central Mexico, which have left at least 72 dead and dozens more missing, have raised questions again about the government’s ability to alert people to severe weather in time.
Authorities continue to describe the days of torrential rain last week that set off landslides and river flooding as unpredictable. Residents talk about never having seen anything like it. But researchers say what was considered normal before no longer exists because climate change has accelerated these events and made them more frequent. And that requires preparation.
“We’re being more and more affected by these phenomena and we can’t go on like this, failing by not knowing what to do and not having … adequate warning,” said Christian Domínguez, a researcher at the Atmosphere and Climate Change Institute at Mexico’s National Autonomous University. She recalled that last year’s crises were drought-related and this year, it’s the rain.
It is a pending issue for Mexico and for countries with more resources and advanced technology like the United States, which experienced a devastating flash flood in Texas this year that killed at least 136 people. Experts say society and governments appear to be stuck in the past and have not accepted that severe weather is now the norm.
In Mexico’s case, it’s president for the past year, Claudia Sheinbaum, is a trained scientist with a background in climate change. But while she expressed willingness this week to review prevention protocols, she didn’t mention climate change and insisted it was impossible to predict with precision how much rain was going to fall in some places.
“The language being used has to be considered” in how to communicate the dangers in an event, Carlos Valdés, former head of Mexico’s National Disaster Prevention Center. “The first thing we have to do is recognize that there is a change … the atypical is now the most typical.”
Tech gaps and prevention
There are technological gaps. For example, Domínguez recognized that Mexico does not have all of the instrumentation for things like measuring river levels in real time that could provide detailed hydrological forecasts or enough weather radars to allow meteorologists to make better forecasts.
But she emphasized that even with the existing forecasts there could be much better prevention strategies if officials think not only of preparing for hurricanes, but also the possibility that the confluence of various weather systems, as occurred last week, has the potential to create a dangerous situation.
In the Gulf Coast state of Veracruz, the day before the main rivers in the northern part of the state jumped their banks, torrential rain was forecast to dump nearly 8 inches (20 centimeters) of rain.
It ended up being three times that, but the original forecast should have been enough for residents and authorities to get organized, Domínguez said.
But in Poza Rica, the hardest-hit city, residents started to flee their homes when the water was already flooding them. Some said authorities warned them too late. Most didn’t think it was going to be so bad.
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist with AccuWeather, said that with climate change severe weather is happening outside of the season when it would be expected and in places not normally associated with a flooding risk.
“A severe weather event can develop anywhere when the ingredients come together,” he said.
Training and education
Mexico has risk maps and civil defense officials are in charge of alerting people, “but beyond alerting, the people have to also understand what is being said,” Domínguez said.
In late 2023, shortly after Hurricane Otis devastated Acapulco, having strengthened incredibly in a matter of hours, a woman in a wrecked neighborhood said she had heard a Category 5 hurricane was coming, but didn’t know that meant that all of the houses were going to blow away.
Experts say that not only do civil defense officials require training, but people need to be educated too.
Over decades, Mexico has developed new ways to alert of seismic activity in central and southern Mexico. With memories of Otis still fresh, Sheinbaum said her administration would focus more on prevention involving hurricanes and rains.
On Friday, thousands of soldiers and officials worked to reopen roads cut by landslides and washed out bridges in Veracruz. But just to the north in neighboring Tamaulipas state, officials watching the Panuco River had already issued clearer warnings Thursday about the chance of flooding when it had risen almost a foot (30 cm).
Sheinbaum said Friday that the area’s mayors had been informed in time and nearly 500 people had already moved into shelters.
“When authorities’ actions are good, nothing happens,” Valdés said.
