Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election has paved the way for a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer, amid mounting calls for him to resign as prime minister.
Mr Burnham, who defeated Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon by 9,231 votes, up from 5,399 in 2024, defied national trends to increase Labour’s share of the vote in an area where Nigel Farage’s Reform UK made sweeping gains in last month’s local elections.
His victory has been seen by some as proof that the former Greater Manchester mayor can beat Reform, with Mr Burnham’s allies calling on the prime minister to now hand over power.
The seat was vacated by Josh Simons earlier this year to allow him the chance of returning to Westminster to challenge Sir Keir, but Labour’s struggle to beat Nigel Farage’s party meant Mr Burnham was in for a tough fight.
The dramatic victory has heaped more pressure on the prime minister’s already strained position in No 10, after he was almost ousted following last month’s disastrous local elections.
The state of his operation was thrown into further chaos earlier this month after John Healey – once one of the prime minister’s key allies – resigned, accusing him of being “unable” to secure adequate cash to fund the government’s defence investment plan (DIP).
Here, The Independent looks at each of the potential leadership candidates, while readers can also share their thoughts:
Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham has long been seen as the frontrunner to replace Sir Keir. He has been hinting at a leadership bid for months, and could be just days away from launching an official challenge now he has won the Makerfield seat.
Popular among Labour MPs, party members and the general public, Mr Burnham has consistently placed far ahead of any other Labour figure in polls, with 47 per cent of members ranking him as their first preference for Labour leadership, compared to 31 per cent for Starmer.
During a BBC Question Time special in the seat, he finally confirmed he will challenge the prime minister if he won the seat, which he has framed as a chance to “change Labour”.
Last year, Mr Burnham repeatedly failed to rule out a leadership bid and has been regularly tipped as the leading candidate to take over should Sir Keir’s position as prime minister become untenable.
Mr Burnham, who was MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017, was the focus of such rumours at the Labour Party conference last September, when he revealed that dozens of MPs were privately urging him to challenge the prime minister.
Wes Streeting
The former health secretary was at the centre of leadership speculation when he announced his resignation from Sir Keir’s cabinet last month.
In his statement announcing his departure, he said it is “now clear” that Sir Keir will not lead the party into the next general election.
In the centre-right of the party, Mr Streeting is a charismatic cabinet minister who is able to connect with the public.
Chatter about a potential leadership bid grew louder towards the end of last year, amid a briefing war targeting the health secretary over his perceived ambitions to succeed Sir Keir.
Mr Streeting is understood to have the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership bid, having recruited more than 81 – the minimum required to trigger a leadership election.
He has previously voiced his concerns about the direction of the government, and hit out at a “toxic culture” in No 10 when the briefings against him were made public in November.
The main obstacle facing Mr Streeting is the perception among some Labour factions that he is too far to the right of the party, and the general feeling that he does not have enough backing to launch a successful bid.
Since leaving cabinet, he has unveiled his initial policy pledges, including the full restoration of Sure Start, which would be funded by a wealth tax. He also said he would delay any formal Labour leadership challenge until after Andy Burnham fought the Makerfield by-election.
Angela Rayner
Rumours about the Ashton-under-Lyne MP’s ambitions have been circling from the moment she resigned from Sir Keir’s cabinet last September, when it was revealed she had underpaid stamp duty on her Brighton flat.
But she has now been cleared of wrongdoing – potentially clearing the way for a run at the party leadership.
Once the prime minister’s number two, Rayner is popular on the soft left of the party and has been named as one of the MPs most likely to stage a coup.
In a stark warning to Sir Keir after May’s elections, she said: “Labour exists to make working people better off. That is not happening fast enough, and it needs to change, now.”
While Ms Rayner ruled out triggering a leadership race herself, she crucially hasn’t ruled out standing in a contest if one was triggered by one of her opponents.
She also hasn’t ruled out endorsing another figure on the soft left of the party, such as Andy Burnham, after she argued he shouldn’t be blocked from coming back to parliament.
A Rayner-Burnham pact would be a formidable force on the left of the party – and would be one that other contenders would find extremely difficult to beat.
Shabana Mahmood
Another candidate who has been tipped for the top job is the home secretary, who was effectively endorsed by former prime minister Tony Blair last year.
Amid previous speculation that Sir Keir could be forced to step down as prime minister, Shabana Mahmood has emerged among the front runners to succeed him.
Soon after Mr Burnham announced his intention to stand in the Makerfield by-election, key figures in one of the Labour factions threw their support behind Ms Mahmood, in a significant blow to the Greater Manchester mayor.
Influential peer Lord Maurice Glasman, who founded the Blue Labour movement on the right of the party, and veteran MP Graham Stringer made it clear that they were not willing to back Mr Burnham following discussion over his support to rejoin the EU.
However, Ms Mahmood’s biggest issues are similar to Mr Streeting’s. Like him, she is seen as being on the right of the party and has polled badly amongst Labour members.
Al Carns
Al Carns’ resignation last Thursday has added to speculation that decorated former marine will emerge as a dark horse in a potential Labour leadership race.
Mr Carns has failed to rule out running in a possible leadership race, but insisted his political career is more about “service” than “ambition”.
Asked whether he resigned as a result of ambition more than principle, he told BBC Radio 4: “People get confused about ambition and service. My whole career has been about service. If I wanted to be ambitious, I wouldn’t have gone into politics. If I wanted to make more money, I wouldn’t have gone into politics.
“I left the military, not because my career was faltering, but because I decided I want to make change, because I think we’re a pivotal moment in the history of the United Kingdom.
“So this is about service to me. I’ve been really clear, you know, I haven’t even received my P45 from the last job yet, and you know, we’ll see what happens.”
