We worked with the Ministry of Justice (MOJ) to explore how climate change might impact the department and its key agencies over future decades.
The work supported MOJ’s climate risk reporting in line with the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). It was also designed to be practical for decision-making and compliance.
Developing scenarios
The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) co-developed bespoke climate scenarios tailored to the UK justice system through workshops with MOJ colleagues.
GAD’s climate risk experts used a structured approach (PESTLE) to identify the most important and uncertain drivers shaping the future of the justice system. GAD combined climate-related risk thinking with structured risk analysis and financial assessment, translating the assessment of climate-related risks into decision-relevant insights.
We used scenarios to assess how climate-related risks for MOJ might evolve in the future (2030s, 2050s and 2080s), focusing on financial and operational impacts. This included a workshop with MOJ stakeholders to understand the wider impacts of future climate change on its core services, such as prisons and courts, to legal aid and probation.
Clear view of climate change
We undertook this work as MOJ needed a clearer view of what climate change could mean for the justice system and its impact on the department both operationally and financially.
MOJ’s services are linked to the built estate (prisons, courts, probation facilities), critical suppliers, and its workforce. Climate change introduces compound risks across all of these through
- direct physical impacts – heat and flooding, drought
- transition impacts – tightening regulation, decarbonisation requirements, and cost pressures
Main findings
The climate scenarios indicated that under both a 2°C and a more severe 4°C climate future, several risks become more acute by the 2030s. This brings major decisions on estate adaptation, decarbonisation and operational resilience into current planning cycles.
Overall, earlier, planned investment and clearer delivery strategies for climate adaptation and decarbonisation actions will reduce the likelihood of costly, disruptive crisis management later.
Project lead Dr Charlotte Marcinko said “Early intervention on climate mitigation and adaptation is likely to be more manageable than responding after impacts have compounded. Delaying action increases the risk that climate change impacts intensify and become more expensive to manage.”