Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to travel to Pyongyang on Monday in his first visit in seven years, a trip likely meant to reassert China’s unique influence over North Korea in return for providing economic and political benefits.
During his two-day stay, Xi is to meet leader Kim Jong Un. It will be their first summit since September in Beijing after attending a military parade with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other foreign leaders.
No specific agenda has been mentioned. Foreign experts predict the meeting will have big ramifications on bilateral ties and beyond, as they both seek to fully restore their traditional alliance in the face of separate confrontations with the U.S.
“A Chinese leader doesn’t just visit North Korea because a visit is due. Xi’s trip will have real implications for China-DPRK relations,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, using the abbreviation for North Korea’s full name.
Sway over North Korea likely helps Xi’s dealings with US
Xi’s trip comes after his back-to-back summits with U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin in Beijing last month. Xi is expected to meet Trump again on a planned U.S. visit in September.
Xi will try to demonstrate China’s “sway over the Korean Peninsula” and “a leadership role in entire Northeast Asia in the ages of strategic competitions with the U.S.,” said Kwak Gil Sup, the head of One Korea Center, a website specializing in North Korea affairs.
China has long been North Korea’s economic lifeline and main diplomatic backer. It was believed to have avoided fully enforcing U.N. sanctions on North Korea and sent clandestine aid to help its impoverished neighbor stay afloat. This year marks 65 years since the two countries signed a mutual defense treaty.
But there have been questions about their ties in recent years, with North Korea prioritizing cooperation with Russia by supplying troops and weapons to support its war against Ukraine. In return, North Korea has received economic and military assistance from Russia.
Restoring an exclusive influence over North Korea would give Xi a leverage in dealings with Trump, who has repeatedly expressed his desire to restart diplomacy with Kim, experts say.
“Implementing U.N. Security Council resolutions and enforcing sanctions do not appear to be priorities for China,” Easley said.
In an article published on the North’s main Rodong Sinmun newspaper Monday, Xi said China and North Korea must boost strategic cooperation and work together to oppose “hegemonism and coercive politics” and pursue an orderly multipolar world.
Kim needs Xi’s support for his push for nuclear state
Xi would likely offer Kim economic aid packages such as shipments of rice and fertilizers, a resumption of Chinese group tourism to North Korea. and joint economic projects, analysts said.
“North Korea can’t solely rely on Russia. It needs to align with China,” Kwak said.
In a Monday editorial, the Rodong Sinmun newspaper called Xi “the most honored state guest,” saying Pyongyang’s streets “are filled with an atmosphere of friendship.”
Xi could also refrain from pressing Kim on the issue of denuclearization of North Korea, and vaguely speak about peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. That would be essential for Kim, who is desperate to win international recognition as a nuclear weapons state as a way to call for lifting of U.N. sanctions on North Korea.
“Chinese officials have taken the position of not speaking publicly about denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula while still maintaining it as a long-term goal. Kim appears to want Xi to accept North Korea as a nuclear neighbor,” Easley said.
Last week, Kim unveiled a new plant to produce nuclear ingredients and vowed to bolster the country’s nuclear forces “at an exponential rate.” He also observed sea trials of a new naval destroyer and called for speeding up efforts to build a nuclear-armed navy.
On Sunday, Kim’s sister and senior official, Kim Yo Jong, echoed her brother, calling a U.S. push for the denuclearization of North Korea an “escapist and anachronistic dream.”
Kim Jong Un has rebuffed U.S. and South Korean offers for talks and focused on enlarging and modernizing his nuclear arsenal since his high-stakes diplomacy with Trump collapsed in 2019. The North Korean leader said in September that he still had “good personal memories” of Trump but urged the U.S. to withdraw its demand for North Korea to denuclearize as a precondition for resuming diplomacy.
Experts say Kim would eventually want arms reductions talks with the U.S. to win concessions in return for partially surrendering his nuclear weapons.
