Care homes could be forced to close their doors over immigration law changes, according to bosses in the sector.
A new UK government white paper proposes care workers on sponsored visas would need to remain in the UK for 10 years before gaining the right to live and work here indefinitely – double the current requirement of five years.
One care worker on a care sponsorship visa described the announcement as “shocking”, and said it was “dashing” her hopes of building a better life.
Downing Street has said it will not “shy away from direct conversations on immigration”, while the Welsh government said it was analysing the proposal and its potential impact on all sectors, including social care.
The proposal was announced in a speech by the prime minister this week, where he warned the UK risks becoming an “island of strangers”.
Sir Keir Starmer did not set a precise target, but the Home Office estimated the new policies could lead to a 100,000 drop in immigration per year by 2029.
Folake, from Nigeria, is currently on a care sponsorship visa which ends in January.
She said she “loves” her job as a nursing home carer and that community “makes me happy”.
“I came with the hope of settling here in the United Kingdom and building a better life for my children,” she said.
“It’s shocking and depressing, and it’s dashing that hope.”
Folake, who lives in Rhondda Cynon Taf, said people do not want to become illegal immigrants or asylum seekers and want to work here legally and “live our lives”.
“Each time I think about it, I question ‘is this really becoming a reality?’ It’s sad, and I panic,” she said.
“[The UK government] made a promise, you asked us to come – this feels like a betrayal of trust.”
Successive governments have tried unsuccessfully to reduce net migration, which is the number of people coming to the UK minus the number leaving.
Net migration climbed to a record 906,000 in June 2023, and last year it stood at 728,000.
Sir Keir argued the proposals bring the immigration system “back into control”, and said the new plans, which tackle legal migration to the UK, would ensure a “selective” and “fair” system, where “we decide who comes to this country”.
A sponsorship visa for carers is a type of skilled worker visa that allows overseas nationals to work in UK adult social care roles under a licensed employer.
Mukesh, from India, came to the UK in 2022 as a dependent of his wife, who was a student at the time.
He later obtained a sponsorship visa to work in care, which is due for renewal in September.
“We don’t know what to do next. It feels like we’re being punished for doing everything right,” Mukesh, who lives in Cardiff, said.
“We didn’t come here illegally. We pay all our taxes and follow all the rules, but still feel punished.”
According to Social Care Cymru, around 88,000 people work in Wales’ care sector, with approximately 15% to 20% coming from overseas.
Oakville Care Homes, which operates four homes across south Wales, employs more than 200 staff, 65% of whom are from overseas.
“It’s going to have a drastic effect,” according to Mahesh Patel, one of the company’s general managers.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if many care homes eventually close. It will have a huge impact on local health boards and local authorities.
“We’ve had lots of meetings with staff – it’s been quite upsetting for them. Some managers have been in tears.”
Mr Patel said he has had meetings with companies this week to arrange recruitment banners to display outside its homes.
“We have to act now, given the number of staff we could potentially lose in the next 12 months,” he added.
Caron Group, which runs 18 homes, said more than 50% of its workforce are on sponsorship visas.
At Ely Court Care Home in Cardiff fears are shared, with staff concerned about the impact on the services they provide to residents.
General manager Rebecca Roberts said the proposal would have a “huge impact on the whole industry”.
“Changing the employment route makes it harder for us to recruit and retain the staff needed to provide high-quality care,” Ms Roberts said.
“It’s not just about numbers – it’s about the expertise we’re losing.
“More and more homes will struggle to find staff, and that will have a knock-on effect across the entire care sector in Wales.”
The UK government has defended Keir Starmer’s speech and insists it will not “shy away” from direct talk on the subject.
The Welsh government said it was “analysing the immigration white paper and its impact on all sectors, including social care”.
