Derby and Oaks weekend is just around the corner and I’ll be in the Godolphin camp in one race and Ballydoyle in the other.
RULING COURT won a strong 2,000 Guineas, with beaten favourite Field Of Gold hacking up in the Irish equivalent.
To me that’s by far the best form on offer going into the Derby and, while ten furlongs might be his optimum trip, there’s enough enthusiasm that Ruling Court can stay the mile and a half at Epsom.
Trained by Charlie Appleby, Ruling Court is around the 4-1 mark to bag a second Classic of the season.
Appleby and Godolphin have won the Derby with Masar (2018) and Adayar (2021) and Ruling Court very much in the mould of the former.
Delacroix is favourite for O’Brien and commands respect but he seems the honourable consistent horse in the race.
Ruling Court (white cap) won a strong edition of the 2,000 Guineas and has a big Derby chance
Trainer Charlie Appleby lifts the Guineas trophy and might bag another Classic prize at Epsom
Delacroix is the current Derby favourite after winning the trial at Leopardstown
The one you’d back to get into the top three but not necessarily win.
Think the likes of Broome and Los Angeles.
He’s of much more interest to me at the stiffer Irish Derby test at the Curragh.
The Lion In Winter was sixth in the Dante and punters are unsure what to make of him. He’s been backed heavily and then drifted out markedly. Is he a generational talent that can bounce back or a bit of a busted flush?
He wouldn’t be for me. The winner at York was Pride Of Arras and he’s a much bigger threat to the selection as he’ll improve for the run and was underestimated in the market. He won’t be this time, however.
Dante second Damysus has an each-way shout for the Gosdens, while the same trainers have Nightwalker who shapes like a stayer. Keep an eye out on him for a St Leger later in the season.
Derby 1-2-3: 1: Ruling Court. 2: Pride Of Arras. 3: Delacroix.
Desert Flower holds all the aces in the Oaks but the 9-4 last week is all gone and the 13-8 makes little appeal.
She’s well clear on the figures after winning the 1,000 Guineas but she didn’t need to improve upon her juvenile form to win that. Stamina is an unknown, although within her compass and I do wonder if she’s really trained on.
Whirl could be the one to side with for the Oaks on Friday for team Ballydoyle
There are a couple of potential improvers lurking in the market and WHIRL appeals the most out of the O’Brien trio at around the 5-1 mark.
She won the Musidora Stakes at York in impressive fashion despite drifting significantly in the market before the off.
Whirl gave the impression that there’s much more to come on the fitness trip and connections were initially mulling over the French Oaks but will instead head to Epsom. That looks the right call.
Minnie Hauk won the Cheshire Oaks in good fashion but needs to improve and may lack the tactical speed required to win an Oaks around Epsom.
Giselle is a filly of significant potential and it’s difficult to gauge her true ability in winning a three-runner race at Lingfield. She was very raw and pulled hard but a bigger field and a truer pace should help her settle and see her in a different light.
She’s dangerous to ignore and it’ll be very informative who No 1 jockey Ryan Moore selects to ride. I suspect it will either be Whirl or Giselle. With the former maybe a bit more reliable, I’d be hopeful he’d pick Whirl.
Elwateen has been supplemented and is not without a chance given she was only beaten a couple of lengths by Desert Flower in the Guineas on just her second-ever start.
Giselle has bundles of potential and won a three-runner trial at Lingfield
Oaks 1-2-3: 1: Whirl. 2: Giselle. 3: Desert Flower.
TRAWLERMAN THE CATCH OF THE DAY FOR ROYAL ASCOT
While all eyes will be on Epsom next weekend, Royal Ascot isn’t far away either.
It’s sad that Gold Cup king Kyprios has been retired after aggravating his injury. He enjoyed a remarkable career. But his absence opens the door for others in an open division.
Personally, I find Illinois an inexplicably short price as favourite. His reappearance win at Chester was fine but he was outstayed in the St Leger at Doncaster last week and I don’t really see how he stays two mile four furlongs at Royal Ascot in open company.
I’d rather see him in a Coronation Cup than a Gold Cup. Don’t get me wrong. He’s a very good horse that’s trained on from three to four but I’m unconvinced of his profile to be a top-class staying horse.
I’d prefer him over a mile and a half at this stage of his career. Jan Breughel beat Illinois in the Leger but there wasn’t much to glean from his reappearance defeat at odds-on.
Yes, he was unfit and racing over a trip about a mile too short for him but he his head carriage was high and he didn’t really finish off his race with any sort of zest. There must be a niggling doubt that his Leger effort may have left a mark on him.
So surely the door is open for TRAWLERMAN to strike gold given his old adversary is sidelined. He beat him once on Champions Day and was only a length behind Kyprios last year and five clear of stablemate Sweet William.
Trawlerman prevailed at Sandown in midweek and must have a big chance at Royal Ascot
Those two pieces of form are lightyears ahead of anything else in the field. He’s not getting any younger at the age of seven but that’s fine with stayers as we see the same horses dominate this division for years; think Yeats, Order Of St George, Big Orange, Stradivarius and Kyprios.
His win at Sandown in midweek should tee him up for another bold bid and odds of 5-1 are still more than fair.
French raider Candelari is a potential fly in the ointment but this is significantly tougher than anything he’s faced over in France.
PERFORMANCE OF THE WEEK…
There was plenty to like about ESTRANGE in the Group Three Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes. Trained by David O’Meara and ridden by Daniel Tudhope, the striking grey was always travelling sweetly and just needed to be pushed out to win by four and a quarter lengths from favourite Shaha.
Don’t be surprised if she takes her chances upped in grade in races such as the Yorkshire and Lancashire Oaks.
SELECTION OF THE DAY…
It’s the French Derby in Chantilly (3.05) and the two to focus on are DETAIN (11-2, Paddy Power) and Ridari who were a little unlucky when fifth and sixth in the French Guineas.
Detain is the better drawn of the pair and can take the prize for John and Thady Gosden who won this in 2020 with Mishriff.
