Scotland political correspondent

Access to Scotland’s adult disability benefits should be made easier despite forecasts of a steep increase in claims and costs, an independent review has said.
A report commissioned by ministers said the Adult Disability Payment was a “great foundation” which was “significantly more compassionate” than benefits on offer in the rest of the UK.
However, it said too many disabled people still found the system difficult to navigate, and said eligibility criteria should be reviewed.
As it stands, the number of people claiming the payment is forecast to grow from 379,000 in 2024-25 to 703,000 in 2030-31.
The cost is set to increase to over £5.4bn per year – a price Scottish ministers say they are willing to pay to have a more generous system.

The Adult Disability Payment (ADP) was introduced in 2022, a cornerstone of the devolved social security agency which was being set up.
It is a regular payment to help people cover the added costs of having a disability or long-term health condition, regardless of whether they are in work or not.
It is essentially a replacement for the Personal Independence Payment (PIP), and 99% of cases have now been transferred from the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) to Social Security Scotland.
The actual payments handed out are the same as PIP – a standard weekly award for daily living costs of £73.90, or an enhanced award of £110.40.
But the review – conducted by Edel Harris, who has led a number of charity and care organisations – said the Scottish approach to assessments was “significantly more compassionate” than the DWP system it replaced.
She said it was “kinder in tone and more dignified in approach”.
And indeed fully a third of people now getting ADP are new applicants, who had not been in receipt of either PIP or the Disability Living Allowance (DLA).
That is only set to grow.
The number of people receiving ADP is forecast to surpass 700,000 by the end of the decade.
That is more than 12% of the Scottish population.
Perhaps that is not such a large number when the last census suggested 24% of Scots had some form of disability or long-term health problem limiting their day-to-day activities.
But it carries with it a huge financial outlay.
Total spending on social security benefits in Scotland was £5.3bn in 2023-24. It is forecast to hit £7.7bn next year, and £9.4bn by 2030-31.
ADP is by far the biggest element of that figure – by 2030-31 it will cost £5.4bn.
For context, that is more than ten times the price of the Scottish Child Payment, and more than 30 times the Scottish version of the winter fuel payment.
And the gap between the ever-increasing cost of these benefits and the funding available in the block grant from Westminster is growing too.
By the end of the decade it will hit £2bn – money that Scottish ministers will need to find elsewhere in budgets by cutting from other departments or by increasing taxes.

Ms Harris is keen for new applicants to continue to come forward, regardless of the costs.
Her report states that “there is evidence of the economic value of the wellbeing impacts of disability benefits, and these significantly outweigh the financial costs associated with administering them”.
She says that “not only should we continue to encourage people to apply for Adult Disability Payment, but we also need to make the application process as accessible and anxiety-reducing as possible”.
The report makes 50 recommendations about simplifying the system and making it easier for people to navigate.
It also argues that eligibility for the payment should be based on “the real life experience of clients and not just on a list of activities”.
At present, eligibility is based on specific things people might need help with. Examples include preparing food, eating and drinking, washing and bathing, getting dressed and communicating verbally.
Some respondents told the review that “having to take the time to highlight issues and what you can’t do is depressing, demoralising and unfair”, and that “it feels like you’re having to beg for help”.
Ms Harris recommended moving from this system to a bigger-picture approach based on outcomes and equal participation in society.

The Scottish government says it will consider the report and set out its formal response in January 2026.
But in many ways they are singing from the same hymn sheet already.
While the UK government was endeavouring to restrict eligibility for disability payments – only to perform a series of climbdowns due to backbench revolts – Scottish ministers were very clear that they would not be making any cuts.
Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville has stated that she sees benefits as an investment in the people of Scotland.
Indeed, that language is actually written into the legislation underpinning Social Security Scotland.
It underlines the very different approaches taken by the Scottish and UK administrations, both of which are faced with a spiralling bill for working-age benefits at a time of tight budgets and weak growth.
The UK government has sought to bring the number of claimants – and thus the cost of welfare – down, while maintaining the Chancellor’s “fiscal rules” against increasing personal taxes or state borrowing.
They say the existing system is broken and that it needs to be made sustainable for future generations, while prioritising those who need help the most.
Generous system funded by higher taxes
Scottish ministers’ generosity will doubtless be popular – in particular with those receiving the payments – but we should not pretend that it was an easy choice to make.
It has been funded by higher taxes, with the Scottish system now featuring six different income tax bands which ask higher earners to contribute hundreds or even thousands of pounds more per year than if they lived down south.
The latest plan to balance the books involves reducing the public sector workforce by 0.5% per year for the next five years.
Social Security Scotland itself has been singled out for “important efficiency savings”, while health boards have also been asked to make 3% cuts.
All of that is based on the system as it currently stands, prior to consideration of Ms Harris’s review.
Perhaps that is why ministers need another six months to decide how to respond – there is a difficult balancing act to be carried out here, and it will take place at the same time as the government is drawing up its next budget.