Australia are considering embarking on a pre-Ashes rebuild after conceding in the wake of World Test Championship final defeat that their ageing Test team needs freshening up.
The five-wicket loss to South Africa at Lord’s, and the start of a new two-year competition cycle, represents an opportune juncture for reassessment and Australia captain Pat Cummins accepted that change is inevitable for the coming series in the West Indies.
What is yet to be determined is its extent. Will it simply be a matter of fresh personnel coming into the XI, or potentially players joining the tour from outside the squad?
‘I don’t particularly know why, but it does feel like a little bit of a fresh start,’ said Cummins, acknowledging both scenarios.
‘Fast forward a couple of years, you start maybe thinking, “If we make the final, who’s going to be in that, and maybe do we want to get some games into them?”
‘In white-ball series, you build on four-year cycles around World Cups and maybe it’s an opportunity to do something similar.
Australia captain Pat Cummins says a ‘fresh start’ could be needed for his team after their loss to South Africa at Lord’s in the ICC World Test Championship final
South Africa lifted a unique trophy at Lord’s after chasing down 282 with five wickets to spare
‘Coming into this match you’ve got guys like Sam Konstas, Scotty Boland, Josh Inglis, who are right on the fringes, so, after this Test match, everyone gets thrown back into the conversation.
‘Do we feel like now’s the right time to change or do you hold and go with the team that got us to the final? We’ve got a couple of weeks before the first Test in the Windies, so I think we’ll sit down and have a bit of a think and digest this game but, for me, I think a new WTC cycle in some ways does feel like a bit of a reset.’
One short-term switch appears certain. Steve Smith is travelling on to the Caribbean with a compound dislocation of his right little finger, an injury that does not require surgery but is set to keep him out of the first Test in Barbados, which starts on June 25.
‘It’s somewhere around the 10 days to two weeks and then maybe you try to bat with a splint, see how that looks. So it’s a bit of wait and see. I’d say first Test, maybe unlikely, and then kind of go from there,’ was Cummins’s prognosis.
Beyond that, the bottom line is — world No 1-ranked Test ranking or not — this Australia side are creaking and there are those around the environment who believe the selectors must give serious thought to regeneration before England arrive Down Under in November.
Not least because they fear that their senior core has reached the end of the line together, as Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath, Adam Gilchrist, Matthew Hayden and Justin Langer did following the 2006-07 Ashes. The difference is that that quintet knew their race was run, whereas the current group have been struggling on with the axe hanging over their heads for months.
A batting line-up riddled with inconsistency is their main concern, particularly the opening pair. At 38 years of age Usman Khawaja’s best days are behind him, while the under-performing Marnus Labuschagne has found himself struggling in a makeshift role at the top of the order. With 19-year-old Konstas viewed as a futuristic alternative — a player more attuned to the changing pace of Test cricket — they are the two under the greatest threat.
Khawaja struck 232 against Sri Lanka in Galle earlier this year, but that was his only three-figure contribution since the start of the 2023 Ashes. Labuschagne has struck half-centuries but they have tended to be down tempo and his most recent hundred came during a second-innings partnership with the North-West weather that denied England a series-levelling win at Old Trafford two years and 17 appearances ago. He averages 24.74 since.
Veteran opener Usman Khawaja, 38, has managed just one century since the 2023 Ashes
No 3 Marnus Labuschagne averages under 25 in Tests since his last hundred two years ago
Having to introduce two new openers for the Ashes would be disruptive, and Cummins did reflect on David Warner’s late career upturn as reason for optimism that Khawaja might still have something left in the locker.
In contrast to England’s stability under Ben Stokes, Australia’s top six has been full of moving parts: Mitchell Marsh, who resuscitated his Test career with a brilliant Ashes hundred at Headingley in 2023, was dispensed with soon after being named their player of the year, Cameron Green has been unable to fulfil the all-rounder role at No 6 due to fitness issues and the top three has resembled a revolving door.
As for the bowlers, no one can doubt the quality of a Fab Four boasting a combined 1,522 Test wickets, but their average age is 35.
Given that injuries tend to be a magnet for older bones, it will require good fortune and cotton wool for Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon to report fit for Perth on November 21 — and first reserve Boland is 36.
A watershed is approaching. It is just a question of whether it comes before or after England’s bid to wrest back the urn next winter.
