In a parallel world, not so very far back in time, the question “What will Iran do to retaliate?” would strike fear into the hearts of the Islamic Republic’s many adversaries.
No longer. Tehran’s relatively muted response to the unprecedented direct American assault on their nuclear labs shows just how limited Iran’s options actually are. Lobbing a fairly limited number of missiles at US bases in the region, well signalled in advance for the Americans to get personnel and equipment out of harm’s way, was almost performative. Tense as it feels, Iran clearly doesn’t want to escalate the conflict, and may not even have the calcify to do so. Iran is no longer the force it was when it was thought to be the match of Israel and, in the region, the United States.
That powerful position was before Iran’s semi-proxies in Hamas launched their atrocities on 7 October; before Iran’s greatest remaining regional ally, Bashar al-Assad, fell from power; before Gaza was razed to the ground; before much of Hamas was degraded; before Israel demonstrated the strength of its defensive “Iron Dome” and the ineffectiveness of Iranian missiles; and, above all, before the Americans launched an apparently successful attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Now, to put it bluntly, Iran seems a pitiful, helpless, friendless giant, at the mercy of those that it menaced for so long, feebly making a choreographed simulacrum of revenge for the sake of saving face, careful not to press the Americans too hard.
Few will sympathise with the country’s leaders, who have done so much to destroy themselves, and too many of their citizens, with an unmatched capacity for bluff. Once called, it seems Iran is not quite the regional superpower, and its various allies and terrorist puppets, though undiminished in ferocity, lack the capacity they once did to cause trouble. The “unconditional surrender” that Donald Trump, tauntingly, demanded a few days ago feels less outlandish after the bunker-busters have done their work.
Iran does, however, still have options. They would be greatly expanded if Russia, its “partner”, had rushed to its aid in recent days. After all, Iran has done much to help Vladimir Putin to fight his war in Ukraine by supplying and licensing Shahed drones, and no doubt much else.
But President Putin is not known for his gratitude, has been building bridges with Israel, and won’t sacrifice his relationship with President Trump by doing anything too obvious to offend him.
There are military options, but they haven’t had much effect thus far. Iran could make some more tokenistic attacks on American assets, barely a blip on the radar. They can continue to bombard Israel, with a poor strike rate, and weather the Israeli counter-attacks, in a war of aerial attrition. It, or militia allies, could strike at US and allied bases in the region, but sowing the seeds of a whirlwind of a response. The attack on US facilities in Qatar and elsewhere, for example, have provoked its Gulf neighbours, further isolating the ayatollahs. Tehran has mostly shied away from decisive actions as a serious option in the recent past, confining itself to symbolic damage to property in friendlier territory, rather than risking American lives. President Trump, mindful of his campaign pledges to keep America out of “forever wars”, will be inclined to de-escalate the situation, whatever the rhetoric.
Still, Iran could try and close the straits of Hormuz, with or without the assistance of its Houthi rebel friends. There’s no doubt that it would seriously affect maritime trade, push oil prices higher, and nudge the world economy that much closer to recession. President Trump thinks he can dictate the world oil price through statements on Truth Social. Not even close, as he might say.
These are not trivial effects of tensions around the Gulf of Aden. Civilian aircraft remain vulnerable.
If America had to retaliate or use force to break such a blockade, perhaps in an international taskforce, then that would escalate their conflict, and Iran would surely be the loser once again. Meanwhile, President Trump has been talking up “regime change”.
Iran, for now, is not to be feared as an opponent – but its very weakness is evolving into a new threat to the stability of the region. Even now, America has not destroyed all of Iran’s capability, in terms of know-how, personnel and, crucially, the stocks of enhanced uranium it may have transported out of the underground bases before the B2 bombers had time to take off (the realisation of which may explain the swift reversal in policy by the president once such a possible movement was detected via satellite surveillance).
The United States Air Force has therefore not “totally obliterated” the Iranian nuclear effort, as the president claims. If, as Mr Trump now appears to prefer, there is indeed regime change in Iran, perhaps provoked by the intolerable effects of sustained air attacks by Israel and America, then the immediate effect will not be the swift appearance of a friendly, democratic government.
Far more likely, as in the 1979 Islamic revolution, is a counter-revolution unleashing further chaos. Out of that might emerge a military takeover, or one by some even more extremist group, and a government even more hostile to the United States and Israel, and less predictable.
The Iranians are nowadays extremely skilled at sanctions-busting, manufacturing armaments and acquiring foreign technology. They could turn to North Korea, or perhaps even to China for covert aid, in exchange for more of their valuable oil and other favours. A “dirty bomb” wouldn’t be that difficult to construct for someone in Iran.
It is a moment for the White House to stop listening to Benjamin Netanyahu and stare into the abyss. There is no reason to suppose that regime change in Tehran will turn out any better than it did in Baghdad, Tripoli or Kabul, and every reason to fear the alternative of a fractured, disorderly, desperate Iran, which could be the world’s first nuclear failed state.
American “boots on the ground” in Iran is not remotely feasible. As the old saying goes, Mr Netanyhu, and especially Mr Trump, should be careful what they wish for.
