Wildfires are threatening the southeastern U.S. this month, with fast-moving blazes ripping across the dry Carolinas and Georgia. The fires come on the heels of an active fall season, with firefighting efforts extending into late November in the Northeast.
The later fires are an ominous omen of the warmer future to come, with wildfire seasons becoming longer and more severe.
Are more wildfires popping up along the East Coast now? Researchers have said there are — but it’s complicated.
The Carolina fires, which started last weekend weekend, have been fueled by low relative humidity, dry conditions, and whipping winds. In North Carolina, the results of Hurricane Helene also contributed to the fires, with significant storm debris “especially vulnerable to wildfires due to increased fuel loading from downed timber,” according to researchers.
The hurricane tore through the western part of the Tar Heel State, bringing flooding rain, knocking down trees, and resulting in the deaths of more than 100 people. While some area forests were left intact, others were decimated and millions of trees were lost, according to The Washington Post.
Record-breaking rainfall from the storm has contributed to the growth of vegetation that is now drying out, the Union of Concerned Scientists noted. That’s incredibly similar to how West Coast atmospheric river storms can lead to similar future hazards with new vegetation that can fuel future fires.
Rapidly alternating from wetter to drier weather thanks to human-driven climate change is what climatologist Daniel Swain has called “hydroclimate whiplash.” And, he warns, it’s speeding up around the globe.
Swain has tied California’s deadly January wildfires to the process. The Los Angeles County area had not seen rain in months when the blazes broke out. Later, heavy rain in areas burned by wildfires led to debris flows.
“This whiplash sequence in California has increased fire risk twofold: first, by greatly increasing the growth of flammable grass and brush in the months leading up to fire season, and then by drying it out to exceptionally high levels with the extreme dryness and warmth that followed,” Swain explained in a statement.
Southern California had been under the threat of hurricane-force Santa Ana winds, with Red Flag Warnings issued for weeks as its massive blazes erupted. Red Flag Warnings indicate that conditions are ideal for wildfires and quick fire spread.
There were an “unusually high” number of Red Flag Warnings for November across the Northeast. It was warm, with 2024 determined to be the hottest year on record. The autumn’s tristate fires also sparked during historic drought conditions that officials tied to climate change.
“The reality is the drought that we’re currently experiencing is just one example of how a changing climate is impacting our state today — not far off into the future but right now, in the here and now,” New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said in November.
Although the majority of wildfires are started by people, growing fire weather hazards are inextricably linked to climate change. Even the speed of Hurricane Helene was faster.
Climate change is affecting weather conditions in ways that increase wildfire risks, according to the nonprofit Climate Central.
The group warned that fire weather has become more common in the Northeast, with parts of northern New Jersey and coastal New York experiencing at least 10 more days of fire weather each year compared to the 1970s.
“Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying, particularly in the West. Many parts of the East have seen smaller but impactful increases in fire weather days,” Climate Central noted in November.
In 2023, researchers used data from nearly four decades to show that large wildfire numbers doubled from 2005 to 2018, compared to the previous two decades. The biggest increases were seen in the Southern Coastal Plains of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and South Carolina, according to the Geophysical Research Letters study.
If trends continue, the densely-populated East Coast is going to need to be better prepared to respond to increases in fire weather, including preparation and management, experts warn.
Officials with the North Carolina Forest Service said that staffing was already stretched thin this week.
“They’re just not as prepared as the West,” Yan Feng, an atmospheric and climate scientist at Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois, told The Washington Post.
One thing’s for certain, scientists say now.
It will be harder to make accurate weather predictions in the future thanks to the Trump administration’s devastation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including the National Weather Service.
“Trump wants to privatize and pay-wall information that lets you know when to evacuate for a hurricane or a wildfire, or when to shelter for a tornado,” Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey noted Monday. “NOAA’s forecasting centers keep Americans safe and informed every day — we can’t afford to lose this lifesaving public service,” he warned.
