Go get your own oil,” Donald Trump tells his erstwhile friends and allies – with some chutzpah, even by his standards. Bemoaning their supposed cowardice and pathetic helplessness, especially that of the British, the US president suggests that it is for others to clear up the appalling mess left behind by his Operation Epic Fury. America, he implies outrageously, has completed its mission in Iran – now, it is for the rest of the West to free the Strait of Hormuz.
It is cynical beyond belief for the US president to treat his friends and allies in this way. America, as Mr Trump often brags, is self-sufficient in hydrocarbons. The United Kingdom, among many others, is not.
Having cratered the world economy with his Iran excursion, now he tells us to “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us”.
As is often the case, it is difficult to know where to start with this “beauty”, as Mr Trump might put it. But it’s worth stating a few obvious facts.
First, a few weeks ago, before the Americans were persuaded by Israel and a couple of rogue senators that war would sort everything out, there was no need for anyone’s navy to attempt to patrol that crucial waterway. Until the attacks on Iran began on 28 February, the maritime trade of the entire world passed through the Strait of Hormuz without let or hindrance.
Back then, the price of a barrel of crude oil was about $70 (£53), rather than the $100-plus (£76) it stands at today. Before this war of choice was started by Israel and the US, the tax exiles and tourists in Dubai were living their best life; no one in Saudi Arabia feared a shortage of clean running water; and the Russian war machine was running out of money. There was no fresh humanitarian disaster stalking Lebanon. The giant Qatari gas field was powering the world’s boilers.
No longer – thanks to Donald Trump, and no one else.
As Shahed suicide drones rain down on the Gulf states, the global economy is being held to ransom. The Strait of Hormuz and its counterpart, Bab el-Mandab – on the other side of the Arabian peninsula, at the mouth of the Red Sea on the path to the Suez Canal – are both controlled by Iran and its Houthi rebel associates. This is a direct consequence of the US president’s poorly planned, perpetually confused, deluded, deeply unpopular and ultimately disastrous military “excursion”. Operation Epic Fury should rightly be renamed Operation Epic Fail.
President Trump, tangibly frustrated by the lack of success of his mission, is – predictably – blaming others for the blunder. In particular, he claims that Nato allies weren’t there for the US when it needed them. Leaving aside his oft-repeated claim that they weren’t needed anyway, no other government, with the exception of Israel, was ever asked to take part, or even consulted – until everything started to go wrong, and the president found himself in a trap of his own making.
Mr Trump told the world on 3 March that “if necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible”. Or maybe not.
Any country that had agreed to join his unlawful campaign – which was always doomed to fail – would only have shared in the ultimate ignominy of defeat. It was not a lack of courage that made Sir Keir Starmer and every other US ally reluctant to back the operation, but common sense.
The sensible thing would have been to advise the president to return to the negotiating table and sign the near-completed deal the Omanis had so painstakingly brokered with Iran in Geneva. By all accounts, Tehran had effectively agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, renounce its stockpile of uranium, and allow international supervision.
It was not enough for Israel and its bellicose prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Mr Trump almost agreed with him, but, as is now obvious, Israeli interests are not always aligned with those of the US or the West. Mr Netanyahu wants Iran destroyed, and doesn’t much care if it becomes a failed state. Even Mr Trump can’t go along with that.
It is also an inconvenient strategic reality that, even after Operation Midnight Hammer in 2025 and the latest bombardments, Iran is still in possession of perhaps as much as 400kg of partially enriched uranium. There is no possibility, now, of Tehran voluntarily giving it up – or of the Americans being able to find and extract it.
It is, as the world knows only too well, difficult to believe what Mr Trump says – even, or perhaps especially, when it is communicated via his own Truth Social media channel. Taken at face value, his latest epistle is an exercise in face-saving as the US, with its mighty armada, retreats.
The easiest way to claim to “win” a war that has had to be abandoned is to change the war aims to fit what has been achieved, ignoring the previously declared objectives. So here are US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s revised post-hoc Iran war aims: “1. The destruction of Iran’s air force; 2. The destruction of their navy; 3. The severe diminishing of their missile launching capability; 4. The destruction of their factories.”
After a turbulent month that was supposed to have included regime change, the Islamic Republic has survived. It still has plenty of drones and ballistic missiles. It controls the world’s trade, and is now holding it hostage. Iran’s people were invited to rise up because “help is on its way”. But it wasn’t.
Then there was the confident expectation of “unconditional surrender” – the world is still waiting for that. A fortnight ago, Mr Trump promised that “one way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!” We know how that turned out.
A “deal” was always imminent, until it wasn’t. And of paramount importance was the notion that Iran was to have its nuclear programme re-obliterated, which has not happened, and will not now happen. Brute force did not work. Diplomacy will have to resume.
A war that was supposed to be won in days, with the fall of the Iranian regime and transformative consequences for stability and peace in the Middle East, has all been a miserable failure. It has been worse than futile.
No wonder Mr Trump is running away as fast as he can. The rest of us, in what’s left of the Western alliance, facing fuel shortages and a recession, are not quite so lucky. To borrow one of the president’s well-worn phrases, we will remember.
