If timing really was everything in sport, then chaos would reign.
Good timing, like much else, only becomes clear in retrospect.
But bad timing is much more common, just like poor decisions on and off the pitch.
We stress good timing because it extends the illusion of control.
So, the well timed run that leads to a goal, or the astute signing are praised based on outcomes.
But think of all the mistimed runs, all the terrible signings – and all the ill-advised contract renewals. They expose just how much of sport, even at its most painstakingly prepared and most lucrative levels, is vulnerable to human frailties like form and injury.
Confidence: Eddie O’Sullivan agreed a new deal as Ireland coach before the 2007 World Cup
Giving out new contracts is an inexact business. The most relevant local example is Eddie O’Sullivan’s new deal before the 2007 World Cup.
Given the calamitous turn that Ireland’s form took in the run-up to that tournament, and which saw Ireland’s golden generation going home before the knockout stages, the decision to give O’Sullivan a four-year deal days before the team departed for France was easily portrayed as a terrible one in the aftermath of that collapse.
But aside from his most entrenched critics, there was no fierce backlash against the decision when it was announced in late August of 2007.
Ireland had beaten South Africa the previous November, with O’Sullivan and Brian O’Driscoll asked in the aftermath if this group could win the World Cup.
The following spring came the historic first matches in Croke Park, including an agonising loss to France and the unforgettable win against England.
That golden generation were only denied the championship by a late France try in their final game against Scotland. This was a playing group in their prime, with a no-nonsense coach at the helm.
It went wrong quickly and within six months of signing his new contract O’Sullivan was gone.
Tough going: The 2007 World Cup did not go well for Ireland and O’Sullivan was gone in 2008
The lessons of that time conditions many of us to be suspicious of new deals on the eve of big tournaments, but sporting bodies are in invidious positions at such times, given that contracts tend to go from competition to competition. They expire when a team’s interest in a tournament does, and good organisations know what is coming next well before then. Scratching around for a replacement when most of the alternatives are already signed up isn’t smart business.
O’Sullivan’s contract was due to run out at the end of the 2008 Six Nations, and the IRFU had to weigh up the risk of losing him if Ireland made the last-four of the World Cup, generally regarded as an achievable target at the time.
The danger of Heimir Hallgrímsson leaving Ireland to move elsewhere was being flagged, perhaps strategically, following the miracles against Portugal and Hungary last November.
He looked done after the disastrous loss in Armenia, but deserved praise for turning the team’s qualification hopes around. And even if the threat of losing him to another country was a part of the negotiating game, the argument for retaining him through to Euro 2028, which the country co-hosts and where the national team should feature, was a strong one.
Progress: Players like Stuart McCloskey excelled under Farrell during the Six Nations
No great amount of agonising should be needed before Andy Farrell’s deal with the IRFU is strengthened. That isn’t up until the end next year’s World Cup, but there’s an expectation that talks on a contract extension until at least 2029, will begin within weeks.
This is against the backdrop of rumours of interest in Farrell from Saracens, and the uncertainty around Steve Borthwick’s position with England.
There’s a risk in agreeing new deals before a tournament, but when it comes to Farrell that is mitigated to near-insignificance by what he’s achieved and the promise of what’s to come.
Of all the compelling reasons to keep him on, his recent record of squad renewal is now one of the most important.
It leaves Ireland’s prospects 18 months out from the World Cup far rosier than they looked after losing to France.
And the new-found vigour for expanding his choices that Farrell showed in the Six Nations has a longer-term importance, too, because the rebuild after next year’s World Cup will be more extensive than what followed the 2023 edition.
Then, Johnny Sexton’s retirement left a cavernous hole, but Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray and Cian Healy stayed on for a season and, crucially, Jamison Gibson-Park was by then established as almost an important creative influence on the team as Sexton.
But Gibson-Park could be gone after Australia, along with James Lowe, Bundee Aki, Stuart McCloskey, Tadhg Furlong, Finlay Bealham Tadhg Beirne and Jack Conan.
They won’t all go at the same time, but they won’t be the foundation stones of a new team, either.
Even players like Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw and Andrew Porter will be deep into veteran status by then.
Next year’s World Cup will and should govern most of the conversation around rotation and options over what remains of this season and into the next one.
However, planning has been at the root of Irish rugby’s success in the professional age.
Resolution: Farrell had a quandary at 10 but Jack Crowley emerged stronger for the experience
Sport, as noted, is capricious but the most successful teams and organisations are the ones that best guard against that.
Tom O’Toole’s brilliant journey from Ulster tight-head to Ireland’s emergency fifth-choice loose-head, winning a crucial early penalty to set the scrum mood against the Scots last week, won’t go down in sporting lore like Donald’s move from tying flies to winning the World Cup, but it’s testament to Farrell’s management, as well as the player’s adaptability.
The flourishing of Jamie Osborne, Robert Baloucoune, Stuart McCloskey and Tommy O’Brien speaks to Farrell’s use of his resources, too.
The future, even in the short term, isn’t picture perfect. The difficulties endured by Tadhg Furlong for much of the championship are a worry given his historic importance to the side, and the slim chance of his most obvious replacement, Tom Clarkson, getting to play ahead of him at Leinster.
The scrum generally should be a concern, while the improvements in the line-out seen in the championship were long overdue.
Veteran core: Jamison Gibson-Park is one of a host of older players Farrell will manage
Set-piece vulnerability just isn’t an option in a big tournament game, be that a pool match against the Scots, or the inevitable meeting with one of the heavyweight teams at some point.
But Ireland got enough right in the championship just gone to justify faith in Farrell.
There are risks that come with a head coach staying too long, but they are best addressed by results. He has delivered yet again, and deserves to be rewarded for that.
Past performance is no guarantee of future success, but in his case the gamble, such as it is, is fully justified.
