With the prospect of Andy Burnham becoming prime minister now looking inevitable, all eyes are on what his top team could look like – but the contest over who will be his next chancellor is hotting up.
Darren Jones has given up on a threat to stand against Mr Burnham but with the hope, according to some Labour sources, that he will become chancellor instead of the one of the other frontrunners. These included former health secretary Wes Streeting, energy secretary Ed Miliband and home secretary Shabana Mahmood.
The former Greater Manchester mayor, who was sworn in as an MP on Monday, will face demands from both inside and outside the Labour Party to generate real change if he makes it into Number 10.
This doesn’t just mean changes to policy, but also changes to the cabinet – with Mr Burnham likely to choose a team that reflects a broader range of views from within the party than the narrow one represented by Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet.
Mr Burnham would, of course, have close allies who he would want to reward with top jobs. But if he gets to the point of naming his cabinet, it will be one role more than any other that will shape his government – his pick as chancellor.
Here, The Independent looks at who might be in the running for a cabinet put together by Mr Burnham.
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Who would be Burnham’s chancellor if he becomes prime minister?
After the prime minister, the role of chancellor is the most important role in government and Mr Burnham’s pick would be the biggest sign of a change of direction from Sir Keir.
While Rachel Reeves, the current chancellor, gave her backing to the MP for Makerfield in what has been seen as a last ditch attempt to keep her job, it looks almost certain that she would be out of the Treasury – and potentially out of government altogether.
Along with her would go her economic policy and perhaps her tight borrowing rules – although Mr Burnham has already said he will stick by them.
There are now four names being widely discussed to be Mr Burnham’s prospective chancellor – Mr Jones, Mr Streeting, Mr Miliband and Ms Mahmood.
These names represent very different approaches to the economy with Ms Mahmood on the right of the party, Mr Streeting the Blairite centrist and Mr Miliband a leading figure on the soft left.
Mr Jones instead is a centrist who represents what remains of the Starmer loyalists camp and would, as a former chief Treasury secretary to Ms Reeves, provide some continuity.
Mr Miliband has been hankering for the job for some time and is a leading contender who would overhaul economic policy in a leftward direction.
However, it has been reported that Mr Burnham is now backing off from the prospect of Mr Miliband in the Treasury over fears the pair could clash as a result of his support for expensive net zero policies.
The Independent revealed over the weekend that Mr Streeting had been asking for the role as part of a deal to drop from his own leadership bid – which he did on Monday.
Both Mr Streeting and Mr Miliband would, in their own ways, be divisive choices. Mr Streeting is deeply distrusted by the left of the party while Mr Miliband’s hard line on net zero policies have made him a controversial figure.
Mr Burnham has been told that both are “too toxic”, while Mr Jones is more amenable to the different factions.
Ms Mahmood is said to want the job and may emerge as another compromise candidate in that scenario. It would also give Mr Burnham a chance to get her out of the Home Office so he could tweak the immigration policy.
That said there may still end up being a surprise name in the mix.
More female MPs could be brought into cabinet
A number of female MPs would likely play key roles in a Mr Burnham cabinet.
Top of that list is Lou Haigh who was forced out of Sir Keir’s cabinet as transport minister over revelations of past criminal convictions involving fraud regarding mobile phones.
She has revived her career – not least as a pivotal figure in Mr Burnham’s campaign coordinating his push in Makerfield and wider bid to be the new Labour leader. If Mr Burnham becomes PM, she is expected to get the key coordination role of Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster running the Cabinet Office, the engine of government.
Another key figure in his campaign was Knowsley MP Anneliese Midgley who would get a plum role, possibly in the cabinet as Leader of the Commons.
Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, is also poised for a comeback. She has quietly put aside her own leadership ambitions to back Mr Burnham. She was forced to resign over her tax affairs but now is looking at a top job, perhaps even home secretary.
Mr Burnham’s ally and party deputy leader Lucy Powell would also likely get a cabinet post and could end up as deputy leader. She may replace Steve Reed running local government, housing and communities, or possibly get the education gig.
The current culture secretary Lisa Nandy would be set for a promotion – she too will be eyeing education.
It will be interesting to see who would be given the defence secretary role in a Burnham government. The money is on former armed forces minister Al Carns, who recently resigned over defence spending. But do not rule out a return by John Healey – who also resigned as defence secretary. He could even land the foreign secretary job.
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Who would be out?
There is a chance of wholesale change which means some surprising figures could be out. Deputy prime minister David Lammy, a close ally of Sir Keir, is widely expected to find himself on the backbenches.
There is also speculation that Mr Burnham would move on from the Morgan McSweeney allies – notably welfare secretary Pat McFadden and housing secretary Steve Reed, even though both are seen as highly competent.
Meanwhile, tech secretary Liz Kendall – who failed previously in the welfare job – is unlikely to land a role in any Burnham cabinet.
One of the issues may be what he would do with the current foreign secretary Yvette Cooper, who was early in telling Starmer that he needed to go. She is likely to survive a potential cull but would likely end up in a different job.
One thing, though, that is always true about new cabinet selections is that there are always surprise names which emerge.
But it may only be a few weeks until we find out.
