The World Cup 2026 is nearing the end of its group stage with teams now seeking to confirm their spots in the knockout rounds.
A hefty 32 of the 48 nations will progress to the next stage of the competition as the top two sides in each group automatically qualify followed by the eight highest point scorers who finish in third. That means there is lots to play for in the final round of fixtures with progression to the last-32 a plausible possibility for a vast majority of teams after two rounds of fixtures.
In Group F the top three could all reverse order after the final set of games, with Netherlands leading Japan on goals scored (but there is a caveat to come) with four points from the first available six while Sweden trail one point behind with pointless Tunisia already out of the reckoning.
The Dutch look best placed to finish top because they take on Tunisia in Kansas, while Sweden and Japan meet in Arlington, Texas, with both games kicking off at 12am BST Friday.
Here’s everything you need to know about Group F’s knockout round permutations:
How can Netherlands advance from the group?
Ronald Koeman’s side will be confident of another win against struggling Tunisia as they pursue top spot and a potentially easier start to the knockouts.
They are all but through and can only drop out of the top two if they lose to Tunisia and Sweden beat Japan by a narrower margin.
Having put five past Sweden last time out, the Dutch would win the tie-breaker against them should they lose and the other match ends level.
What must Japan do to reach the last-32?
Avoiding defeat will be enough for Japan to progress in the top two but anything other than a shockingly heavy loss would still see them advance as a third-placed team.
Equally they know that bettering Netherlands’ result against Tunisia would secure first position.
How can Sweden seal their place in the knockouts?
Win and they are through; draw and they should be fine as well. A loss, however, means things could get interesting for Graham Potter’s side because they will be left relying upon other third-place teams having a worse record.
They can only finish top with a win and Netherlands defeat, while a draw would keep them behind Japan but on four points.
Head-to-head prominence over goal difference
If teams finish on the same number of points their standing in the group will be determined by the head-to-head record against the nation they are level with. If one team tied on points with another has beaten them in the group stage, the winners will finish higher up the table.
Where multiple teams are level on points, a mini-league is created, removing the results against the remaining teams. Those tied teams are ranked by points won in the games involving each other, then by goal difference, followed by goals scored. If that does not split them, the next criteria is goal difference followed by goals scored for the group overall.
Any other tiebreakers?
If teams are still level on points following head-to-head results, goal difference and goals scored then the Team Conduct Score (TCS) comes into play. It is basically a fair play score and is rated based on the amount of cards a team has collected. Each team, including managers and backroom staff, started on zero and were deducted points throughout the group stage as follows:
- Yellow card -1
- Red card for two yellows -3
- Straight red card -4
- Yellow then straight red -5
The closer to zero, the better the score. If the teams are still level, whoever had the higher Fifa ranking in June’s published update will go through.
How are the top eight third place finishers determined?
The top eight third place finishers will be decided on which teams have accummalated the most points.
Should eight or more nations finish third with the same number of points, the nations who progress will then be determined by goal difference.
In all likelihood, teams that finish third with four points or higher will go through, the teams on three points will need the best possible goal difference to progress.
