Myanmar’s leader Min Aung Hlaing is meeting president Xi Jinping in Beijing on Tuesday to kick off a state visit that’s expected to give the former junta chief a diplomatic boost as he seeks to consolidate his grip on power following a widely condemned election earlier this year.
The five-day trip is Min Aung Hlaing’s first to the powerful neighbour since he stepped down as chief of the military in April and took on the civilian role of president in the war-torn country.
Min Aung Hlaing’s trip to China follows an official visit to India where he held talks with prime minister Narendra Modi.
“An official state visit hosted by Xi Jinping is a visible signal China is prepared to deal with Myanmar’s new administration as a full partner,” Richard Horsey, senior adviser at Crisis Group, said. “India gave him a warm embrace on his recent visit, but not the full honours of an official state visit.”
While the optics present a win for Min Aung Hlaing, analysts suggest that Beijing’s primary focus will remain on securing its own strategic interests, which include strengthening border security and developing crucial resources such as rare earths.
China is Myanmar’s leading trading partner and investor, solidifying its influence through major Belt and Road projects, including a cross-country oil and gas pipeline and a deep-sea port. Beijing also acts as a vital supplier and diplomatic ally for the Myanmar military, at times even mediating ceasefires in border regions where ethnic armies with strong ties to China hold sway.
“China’s interests are not on federalism but rare earths, infrastructure, mining, and securing the economic corridor to the Indian Ocean,” David Mathieson, a Thailand-based analyst monitoring Myanmar, said. “China also perceives the West in retreat from Myanmar and Beijing will assert a new suzerainty over the country.”
Myanmar has been embroiled in a devastating civil war since Min Aung Hlaing orchestrated the ousting of Aung San Suu Kyi’s government in February 2021. Street protests against the military coup escalated into a nationwide armed uprising, pitting the military against newly launched pro-democracy groups in addition to long-established ethnic armies.
The conflict has ravaged the impoverished nation, killing some 93,000 people and displacing more than 3.7 million.
In spite of the ongoing strife, the military engineered an election at the turn of this year that effectively excluded all major opposition groups, leading to a decisive win for an army-backed party and paving the way for Min Aung Hlaing’s presidency.
Min Aung Hlaing’s delegation to Beijing includes the chief ministers of Kachin and Shan states, both of which share a border with China, alongside the industry minister.
Kachin, which is currently witnessing intense fighting between the military and an ethnic armed group, possesses one of the world’s major heavy rare earth mining belts. Shan State, meanwhile, shares several trading routes with China.
The presence of the ministers indicates that discussions are likely to centre on border trade and the Myitsone Dam, a $3.6bn Chinese-led project in Kachin that was shelved in 2011.
“In 2025, the military’s second-in-command General Soe Win personally began bringing up the subject of restarting Myitsone, so I think they will discuss restarting it during Min Aung Hlaing’s current trip to China,” Aung Kyaw Soe, a Thailand-based analyst, said.
Casting a shadow over Min Aung Hlaing’s visit is the recent arrest in China of Min Zin, a prominent American scholar of Myanmar, on suspicion of espionage.
“Min Aung Hlaing’s visit will put a greater focus on Min Zin’s arrest, because he is one of the most prominent Myanmar scholars working to improve understanding between the two countries,” Mr Horsey said.
