On Thursday, voters in what has long been one of the safest Labour seats in the country will be going to the polls to decide not only who becomes their next MP, but potentially the fate of the prime minister and thus of the country. They could also be creating a vacancy for a new mayor of Manchester. For so much power to be invested in fewer than 80,000 voters in just one Greater Manchester constituency represents at once an extraordinary institutional anomaly and a profound responsibility.
The by-election in Makerfield was called after the sitting MP, Josh Simons, stepped down to give the mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, the opportunity to return to Westminster. Formerly the MP for the nearby constituency of Leigh, Mr Burnham had made no secret that his desire to return to Westminster is because it is the necessary first step in trying to replace Sir Keir Starmer as party leader and prime minister.
What at one point looked like a fairly safe bet, offering a streamlined path to power, soon started to look rather more of a risk, with a serious threat from Reform UK at the by-election, and then, were he to win, from as yet unannounced candidates in the Labour leadership contest that could follow.
In fact, his prospects at the by-election have improved as campaigning has gone on, with the latest polls giving him at least a 5 per cent lead. This is in part because of his own assured performance, but also because of the weakness of the Reform candidate, and the stronger-than-expected appeal of the further-right Restore Britain party, with a split vote on the right opening the way for a Burnham win.
There are, nonetheless, caveats, from “shy” Reform voters concealing their intentions from pollsters to the possibility of a larger or smaller turnout on the day, or a new atrocity, such as the Southport killings or the attempted murder in Belfast, that could boost support for the right. Tactical voting could also be a factor, with people calculating how best to secure Burnham’s victory – or defeat. With 14 candidates in all, there are a lot of numbers to play with.
Even if Mr Burnham wins, he then has to decide how soon to declare his challenge and muster the requisite number of MPs in his support. With Wes Streeting, whose resignation as health secretary helped trigger much of the leadership speculation, vowing to stand, and the prime minister insisting that he fight, and other candidates possibly also putting themselves forward, Mr Burnham’s success would not be a foregone conclusion.
It is true that Sir Keir would appear to have his back up against the wall. What with the fallout from the Mandelson affair and the attendant revelations, the scale of defeats in the local elections, the latest ructions over asylum seekers following the Belfast attack, and the resignation of the defence secretary over defence spending, his position seems weaker by the day. But is it weak enough to force his departure ahead of a contest or cause his defeat? With the political landscape across the country so volatile, a sufficient body of MPs could decide they would prefer him to stay. At any rate, the result cannot be a foregone conclusion.
If Mr Burnham is defeated on Thursday, he will return to serve out the remainder of his mayoral term and Reform (probably) will have an extra MP. If Mr Burnham wins, he has to decide whether to move at once or to bide his time. And here the old wisdom applies: if it is to be done, “t’were well it were done quickly”.
The Starmer government has been increasingly beleaguered for the best part of a year. A huge parliamentary majority has been squandered. For the sake of the country, the question of leadership needs to be settled as a matter of urgency.
Once a byword for solidity and the stability of its institutions, the UK has increasingly been compared to how Italy used to be. To have five prime ministers in as many years hardly fosters or testifies to good governance. If a by-election victory for Mr Burnham does trigger a leadership contest that he wins, this will, of course, pose questions of its own. If his agenda diverges in many respects from that of the 2024 Labour manifesto, he could feel obliged, or be pressed, to hold a general election – a decision that could rebound whether he does or he doesn’t: witness the misfortunes of both Gordon Brown, who chose not to, and Theresa May, who did.
That, though, is for another day. The hope has to be that whatever happens in Makerfield paves the way for a process that passes off as smoothly and speedily as possible, leaving the country with a prime minister who knows how to use what is a privileged parliamentary majority for the national good and can lead a government that is worthy of the name.
