Downing Street is involved in a plot to derail Andy Burnham’s hopes of returning to parliament, allies of the Greater Manchester mayor have claimed.
Fears have been raised that the Labour leadership will “soft-play” support for Mr Burnham in the by-election, asking MPs to campaign for him but not setting a three-line whip.
Labour MPs have also been told by allies of the beleaguered prime minister that Mr Burnham could bring back former leader Jeremy Corbyn, who was expelled from the party in 2024 due to a row over antisemitism.
Many Labour backbenchers believe that the party does not stand a chance in Makerfield, where Reform recently won almost all the council seats. Sources indicated that Reform was set to announce local plumber and councillor, Robert Kenyon, as its candidate, but it could now be Dr David Bull, who stepped down as party chairman on Monday afternoon.
A source close to Sir Keir has conceded that if Mr Burnham wins in Makerfield “then he will almost certainly become prime minister”.
Polling experts Professor Sir John Curtice and Lord Robert Hayward also said that Mr Burnham will become the next Labour leader if he wins the by-election.
Allies of former health secretary Wes Streeting have scoffed at the idea that stopping Mr Burnham getting elected will save the prime minister, warning that thousands of activists are ready to campaign for a candidate ready to unseat him.
But in a sign that the fight is going to get nasty, a close ally of the prime minister said: “You have to look at what the price is for the support of the Socialist Campaign Group on the left for Andy. It could be bringing Corbyn back and a hard line on Israel. How would that work when we have peak antisemitism as a problem at the moment, not least with the attack in Manchester? That’s what colleagues need to think about.”
Sir Keir said on Monday that he would support “100 per cent” whoever is the Labour candidate for the seat, which is seen as a two-horse race between Reform and Labour.
But he insisted he will not set a timetable for his departure.
Asked about setting a date for standing down, he said: “I’m not going to do that. It is obviously a very important by-election.
“Can I be really clear, as I was with my staff as well, it is a fight between Labour and Reform. It’s a very important fight.
“I will be backing 100 per cent whoever the candidate is – they’re not quite chosen yet, but soon to be chosen – whoever the Labour candidate is. I’ll be 100 per cent behind them.”
Meanwhile, a furious deputy prime minister David Lammy accused Labour MPs of “scoring a spectacular own goal” and “shooting ourselves in the foot” by trying to depose Sir Keir.
But a key ally of Mr Burnham on the left of the party told The Independent: “Anyone who thought the political culture inside Labour and No 10, the culture that appointed Peter Mandelson, somehow died with the departure of Morgan and Mandelson, now has their answer.
“The party, its members, its voters and the country deserve better than a politics run by cliques, patronage and self-preservation. That culture has done enough damage already.”
Mr Burnham, meanwhile, made a major speech in Leeds seen by many as laying out his agenda if he was to become prime minister.
He made little secret of his ambition, he used a confident address to tell his audience he wanted to talk about the “big changes” he believes are required in the way Britain is run.
He also said that a vote for him – if he is selected for the by-election – was a “vote to make life more affordable again… to power up places… to re-industrialise”.
Prof Curtice said: “It’s going to be Burnham [as Labour leader] if he wins in Makerfield.”
“Streeting is not popular inside the Labour Party. It’s difficult to see how he wins.
“So if Burnham isn’t in the race, it’s probably Rayner rather than Miliband. And Rayner only narrowly beats Starmer, so it depends on whether she can convince the party to get behind her.”
Lord Hayward suggested that Mr Streeting’s intervention on rejoining the EU was the one thing which could derail Mr Burnham in a strongly leave voting constituency.
He said: “When Andy Burnham declared I immediately thought he would win, not by a large margin but would get over the line because he is so well known in the Greater Manchester area. That was despite Reform sweeping the seats in Wigan in the recent local elections.
“But when Wes Streeting made his speech and called for the UK to rejoin the EU, I changed my mind. I think Andy Burnham could now lose because this was such a pro-Leave seat. It is not definite but there is significant doubt over him winning.
“It would seem like a clever move by Streeting to sabotage Burnham’s chances.”
A close ally of the PM warned that the Sir Keir believes the “incredibly broad” coalition of support for Mr Burnham within Labour is “already fracturing.”
The source noted that Blue Labour on the right with a pro-Israel, tough on immigration and anti-trans stance is supporting the Greater Manchester mayor along with the Socialist Campaign Group which is anti-Israel, opposes immigration measures and supports trans rights.
“We are only three days into the [by-election] campaign and that coalition of support is already fracturing. Andy cannot just hold it together through personality alone. He is going to have to make decisions on positions and compromises. That’s going to annoy different supporters.”
The source added: “The Brexit issue is a classic problem for Andy. He cannot say he wants to rejoin the EU but does not want to talk about it in a by-election in a pro-Leave seat. You cannot avoid the questions.
“Our positions have come through difficult compromises which the PM has stood by and Andy will need to do the same thing.”
But an ally of Mr Streeting told The Independent: “If Starmer thinks that stopping Andy will save him then he’s deluded.
“We have hundreds of defeated candidates waiting to campaign against the PM because they are so angry.
“Wes will definitely stand even if Burnham loses in Makerfield and I am certain from the feedback I am getting that he would defeat Starmer.”
