Former CIA director Leon Panetta has said that Iran has “a gun to our head” because of its stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz and warned that President Donald Trump has bitten off more than he can chew.
Panetta was speaking Thursday as Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping agreed at their summit in Beijing that the Strait must be reopened for the free flow of energy.
“My sense is that it’s very likely this war, which was supposed to end after six to eight weeks, is probably going to continue for a number of months,” the ex-official told The Times.
“This is because we have not found the key to how we achieve, not just a continuing ceasefire, but a resolution to some of the crucial issues which will then allow us to end the war. The president, frankly, has very few options.”
The ex-intelligence chief led the CIA under Barack Obama from 2009 until 2011 and was then the Democrat’s defense secretary from 2011 to 2013, playing a role in the dramatic capture of al-Qaeda terrorist Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.
Panetta told the newspaper he saw little purpose in a resumption of U.S. airstrikes against Iran, as Trump has threatened in recent days in response to the ongoing lack of progress in peace talks between their two nations.
“I question whether additional military action is going to produce any real change in the regime,” he said. “They’ve been able to withstand a great deal, and from our own intelligence the indication is that they can continue to withstand that kind of impact.
“So I’m not sure military action provides a key to trying to apply leverage right now.
“The president is going to have to decide: does he continue to seek some kind of quick end to the war? If so, that means he’s got to deal with the Strait of Hormuz, and, at the very least, he has to provide a negotiating mechanism for the nuclear issue. But that process is not there right now.”
Panetta also said there was little justification for sending U.S. ground troops into Iran, other than to attempt to seize control of the Strait.
“When I was secretary of defense, [we concluded] you’ve got to have enough troops to cover 50 miles on each side of the Strait of Hormuz and 100 miles further in to control that entire area,” he said. “There will be casualties as a result of that kind of effort.”
Panetta said the only realistic approach to wrestle control of the passage from Tehran would be for both sides to agree that it be operated by “an allied coalition, which will guarantee free movement of ships without fees.
“But at this moment in time, Iran has a gun to our head with the closure of the Strait. Somehow, we’ve got to find a way to make sure that that gun is not there.”
He said that U.S. intelligence chiefs “always knew” that the country would react to any attack by closing the Strait, blocking one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments from getting through and driving up global fuel prices, and accused the Trump administration of missing the opportunity to plan ahead.
“As long as the Strait remains closed, as long as they continue to put tremendous pressure on the US and the world economy, we’re not going to get anywhere because they have the leverage.”
Panetta was also dismissive of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s top negotiators, calling them “just two business guys from New York” with no diplomatic experience.
He said America’s “gun” in the situation is its unwavering opposition to Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran knows will mean it faces constant hostility from Washington so long as it persists with its ambitions.
“So, each side is in this situation where they’re waiting for the other side to blink,” Panetta said. “In many ways, they both consider the other side to be a paper tiger.”
He further warned that there was a problem of trust on both sides, with the U.S. wary of Iran’s “hardline regime” and, he suggested, Tehran unsure “if they can trust Donald Trump as president, to stand by whatever agreement is made”.
“My greatest fear is that within another four to five years, no matter if we arrive at any kind of agreement, that ultimately the United States and Israel will be back at war,” Panetta concluded, warning the Trump administration against alienating its long-standing international allies and ending up alone.
Also Thursday, Senate Republicans again blocked Democrats’ seventh attempt to bring an end to the war, although this time Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski joined rebels Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky in switching sides and opposing the conflict.
