Solar and wind power shielded the world from the worst impacts of the energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, new data shows.
Analyses published on Wednesday found that the decline in gas-fired power generation caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade was absorbed by record levels of solar and wind capacity rather than coal.
Global fossil fuel power generation fell 1 per cent year-on-year in March, according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Outside China, coal-fired power generation fell 3.5 per cent and gas-fired generation by 4 per cent, while solar rose 15 per cent and wind 7.6 per cent. No coal units were returned to service or delayed from retirement in any country during the month.
A separate analysis of seaborne coal trade by the energy consultancy Bombay Strategy, using Kpler shipping data, found that global coal imports in March recorded their lowest level in five years, falling about 7.6 per cent year-on-year to 102.8 million tonnes.
The analyses contradict the narrative of a “coal comeback” that took hold after South Korea, Japan and Thailand announced measures to extend coal plant operations in response to the gas shortfall from the Middle East.
As the energy crisis struck Asia the hardest, several countries appeared to return to coal. India called on coal plants to run at “maximum capacity”, South Korea lifted its operating cap on coal-fired generation, while Japan allowed older plants to run at full capacity for up to a year. Yet, the power generation data tells a different story.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said such measures were of limited practical significance. “In general, coal power plants operate at as high rates as possible to start with, so there is little to no scope in most countries for coal-fired generation to increase in the short term,” he told The Independent.
“The measures announced by Japan and Korea would at most increase coal-fired power generation by 1-2 per cent in each country for a limited period.”
Japan and South Korea were the only nations where coal generation rose significantly, but Myllyvirta said this had nothing to do with the Hormuz crisis.
“The higher coal generation had nothing to do with the Hormuz crisis but was due to lower operating rates of the two countries’ nuclear fleets,” he said. “This left more space temporarily for coal plants to run.”
A number of countries went in the opposite direction. “The UK, India, South Africa, Germany, the Netherlands and Turkey more than covered their power demand growth from clean energy while reducing both coal and gas-fired power generation,” Myllyvirta said.
In the past, oil crises typically triggered a rush to coal as a cheaper alternative. This time, the data suggests, is different.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, daily seaborne coal shipments surged 9.7 per cent in the first two weeks and were sustained at 9.4 per cent through the following month, according to Bombay Strategy’s analysis. After the Hormuz blockade, coal shipments fell 2.5 per cent in the first 14 days, recovering to just 0.5 per cent above pre-war levels by day 40, staying effectively flat.
”Coal trade volumes for March tell a very different story of how the world is reacting to LNG shortages compared to predictions made by the coal lobby,” said Hozefa Merchant, global energy lead at Bombay Strategy.
“Unlike in 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine war, where LNG shortage led to panic buying of floating coal cargo, this time we’ve actually seen a decline in total volumes altogether. One key difference is that the world has a lot more installed renewable energy capacity now than it did in 2022.”
The structural reason, both analyses suggest, is the scale of clean energy deployment since the last big crisis. Between 2022 and 2025, the world added over 2,000 gigawatts of renewable capacity. The solar and wind capacity added in 2025 alone was estimated to generate around 1,100 terawatt hours per year, roughly twice the electricity that would have been generated by all the LNG transiting Hormuz before the blockade.
“The record growth in global clean power generation, particularly solar and wind, has helped ease the impact of the latest fossil fuel crisis,” said Myllyvirta.
“The increase in clean electricity offset the fall in gas-fired power generation following the Hormuz blockade, preventing a jump in coal-fired power generation,” he added. “To mitigate the effects of the current crisis and make such recurring global emergencies a thing of the past, it’s essential to use this moment to accelerate the global energy transition.”
This does not mean the crisis has left the power sector unscathed. China saw a gas-to-coal swing in coastal provinces, though with gas accounting for 3 per cent of its overall electricity generation, the scope for switching was limited. Malaysia and the Philippines recorded increases in coal imports as the LNG-dependent countries reached for cheaper alternatives. Pakistan saw a dramatic rise, though from a very low base.
Moreover, Merchant cautioned that the March data offered only an early read. “Since this is an ongoing crisis, things may change,” he said. “But data so far points to no surge in coal demand.”
However, for new fossil fuel investment in response to the current crisis, the structural picture was discouraging, not least because new fossil fuel projects take years to bring online, Myllyvirta noted.
“The strait will open at some point, and in the meanwhile, accelerated clean energy and electrification will have made a major dent in fossil fuel demand, leaving the global market oversupplied,” he said. “A volatile but structurally oversupplied market is a terrible basis for investments.”
