Last year around 1.3 million British tourists visited Dubai, making it by far the most popular destination in the Middle East for UK holidaymakers. Since 28 February, though, the tourism industry has collapsed.
Within hours of the first US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February, Tehran dispatched missiles – and drones laden with 90kg of explosives – at key economic infrastructure in the UAE, including the main airport and hotels.
Dubai, seen for decades as a safe and serene haven offering guaranteed sunshine and indulgence, now finds itself on the Foreign Office no-go list – even for airline passengers who merely plan to change planes.
Experience during the Covid pandemic suggests that ministers are quick to place travel restrictions in place but slow to remove them. However, at some point the advice against visiting the UAE is sure to be lifted.
The question for Dubai’s beleaguered tourism industry – which was worth an estimated £30bn last year – is how quickly and completely it recovers?
Ash Bhardwarj, writer and security expert, has told The Independent’s daily travel podcast that influencers will be key to restoring confidence.
“The UAE – particularly Dubai – has been very effective at using influencers and content creators to promote a lifestyle of safety, luxury and low tax,” he said.
“That messaging has often been positioned in contrast to places like the UK, especially London, to attract talent and investment.
“Those promoting Dubai have strong incentives to continue reinforcing that image. It’s a bit like Bitcoin: you want it to keep going up.
“As a result, people considering travel there will keep seeing positive messages on social media. It’s not just about cheaper flights or hotel deals – it’s also about perception: ‘I’ve seen it online, it looks great, and it feels safe.’ That influence is probably stronger than we like to admit.”
But Rob Burgess, founder of the frequent flyer website Head for Points, believes “people will be flooding back” to Dubai due to the destination’s unique offering.
He told The Independent: “You’re looking at destinations with very reliable weather, which are about six or seven hours’ flight from the UK, even less from mainland Europe. You can’t replicate this.
“The sheer scale of it means you can’t just fill this gap by going to parts of Europe, even places like Seville or Morocco. The weather simply isn’t there compared to what you get in the Gulf at that time of year.
“Destinations further away, like the Caribbean, involve 10–11 hour flights and the volume of accommodation isn’t there.
“What the Middle East made work is exceptionally high-quality accommodation. You could name the 20th best beach hotel in Dubai and, on my scale, it’s better than 99.9999 per cent of beach hotels in Europe, purely in terms of facilities and what it offers, even before we talk about the weather.
“Pricing is generally good, staff are generally good. You can’t replicate that in the UK, and the scale means you can’t get it by going further afield. So the market will come back.
“It’s more a case of what confidence people need in order to book. I think because these are often family destinations, it’s slightly trickier. Where I might be prepared to travel with my wife is slightly different to what I might be prepared to put my children through.
“But the infrastructure is there and it’s not going anywhere.”
Emirates, the giant airline whose future is bound up with its hub city, is currently operating about 60 per cent of its schedule.
A spokesperson for the airline said: “Since the partial re-opening of UAE airspace, Emirates has been operating a reduced passenger flight schedule.
“Our gradual network restoration provides connectivity to and from Dubai.”
The carrier is now flying to Dubai from all eight gateways in the UK: the London airports of Gatwick, Heathrow and Stansted, plus Birmingham, Edinburgh, Glasgow Manchester and Newcastle.
“We continue to monitor the situation, and will develop our operational schedule accordingly,” the Emirates spokesperson said.
“We would like to thank our customers for their ongoing understanding and patience.”
The Foreign Office continues to advise “against all but essential travel” to the UAE. Anyone who visits against FCDO advice is likely to find that their travel insurance is not valid.
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