The odds that President Donald Trump will be impeached before the end of his second term have never been higher — at least according to a popular online betting site.
Kalshi, one of the largest prediction market platforms, currently places the odds of Trump being impeached at 69 percent, the biggest share since the market was created in November 2024.
This figure has steadily risen over time, growing from just 33 percent the week after Trump won the election to 59 percent a year after his inauguration.
Bettors on Polymarket can wager on the same question, where odds now stand at 46 percent for the 79-year-old Republican president being formally charged by the House of Representatives. The market appears to have been created on Thursday, with the odds hovering around 50 percent since then.
Since returning to office, Trump has spoken about the prospect of impeachment on multiple occasions.
“You gotta win the midterms cause, if we don’t win the midterms…they’ll find a reason to impeach me,” he told Republican lawmakers during a retreat in Washington, D.C. in early January. “I’ll get impeached.”
The following month, he joked that he could face lawmakers’ wrath during a phone call to the U.S. men’s hockey team after they won the gold medal in Italy.
After inviting the team to celebrate at the White House, he said, “I must tell you, we’re going to have to bring the women’s team, you do know that.” If he failed to do this, he said, “I do believe I would probably be impeached.”
The billionaire president is also no stranger to impeachment.
During his first term, he became the only president in U.S. history to be impeached twice — in 2019 for allegedly pressuring Ukraine’s president to investigate Joe Biden and in 2021 over claims that he incited the January 6 Capitol riot. The Senate acquitted him both times.
But, despite what betting markets say, there’s no guarantee Trump will face a record-breaking third impeachment. The sites, used by millions, are not crystal balls, and their history of getting it right is a mixed bag.
On March 3, Polymarket placed the odds of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton winning the Republican Senate primary at 83 percent. Paxton ended up winning 40.7 percent of the vote compared to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn’s 41.9 percent — and the two have since entered into a runoff.
But, there have also been moments of success. Prior to the 2024 election, Polymarket placed the odds of Trump winning at more than 61 percent. He ended up romping to victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris, winning all seven swing states.
As the sites grow in popularity, they’ve also faced intense scrutiny — particularly over well-timed bets that hint at possible insider trading.
Just before the U.S. and Israel launched their joint strike on Iran, Polymarket traders were actively betting on what might happen. One user, “Magamyman,” raked in $553,000 after wagering correctly that Iran’s supreme leader would be ousted.
“It’s insane this is legal,” Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, wrote on X. “People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”
On March 17, Murphy put forward a bill that would ban prediction markets from betting on government actions deemed “ripe for rigging.”
The same day, Arizona became the first U.S. state to file criminal charges against Kalshi, accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling business.
