If there’s one thing horseracing fans hate, it’s unpredictability. Ignore the fact that the whole basis of the industry is built on not being able to choose the winning runner every time. Most punters do, as they believe that with the correct research, brushing up on recent results, tracking trainers, horses, and specific jockeys they will be able to beat the odds and earn success in a sport stacked against them.
In recent years that irrational logic has been truer during the Cheltenham Festival than perhaps any other meeting. The event is the climax of the National Hunt season; it draws in crowds of around 250,000 spectators over four days of thrilling horseracing goodness and generates an estimated £274m (based on 2022 figures) in economic impact. That figure is up from around £100m in 2016 and one of the many reasons for that is the seemingly predictable nature of the races themselves.
What do I mean by that? 28 races are run over the four days with seven scheduled each day and all headlined by Friday’s Gold Cup. The last decade or so has been kind on spectators with an average of eight favourites taking victory over the course of the meeting. The 2016 Cheltenham Festival began the trend of excelling favourites with 10 of the 28 races won by horses at the shortest odds and the success of favourites that year was beaten by the 11 winners in 2022. The eight winners average has lasted a decade with that number having been equalled or beaten in eight of the previous 10 years the Festival has taken place.
Zoning in specifically on the Gold Cup, a race that has historically been difficult to predict the winner in, five of the last 10 winners have set off as the favourite with four of those winners coming in the previous six years. Al Boum Photo took the win as a 100/30 favourite in 2020 following a shock 12/1 success the previous year. A Plus Tard won in 2022 at odds of 3/1 while Galopin Des Champs claimed victory in 2023 and 2024 at odds of 7/5 and 10/11 respectively.
The returns may not be huge, but the preference of regular racegoers is an almost-guaranteed winner over a surprise outsider. That’s what makes the 2026 Cheltenham Festival so intriguing.
After years of well-backed favourites showering themselves in glory at the Festival, 2026 could buck that trend. A quick glance of the pre-Festival odds shows just four races with horses as odds-on favourites – meaning you must wager more than you will win back – and one of those is Fact To File in Thursday’s Ryanair Chase. At 8/13 Februrary’s Irish Gold Cup winner is now the shortest-priced favourite for the Festival having been tasked with defending his crown rather than challenging for the Gold Cup on Friday.
Looking back at the 2025 Festival shows a strong start for horses with the favourites tag. Four of seven were successful on day one but that quickly dipped with only five favourites winning across the following 21 races. In between were massive upsets such as Doddiethegreat taking the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle at 25/1 and Poniros winning the Triumph Hurdle at 100/1. So how do punters navigate these extremes?
A tried-and-tested strategy would be to back the prolific duo of Irish trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend. Townend has been the champion jockey at the Festival in five of the last six years, only being beaten in 2021 by the exceptional Rachael Blackmore. Yet his four winners in 2025 was his lowest return (whilst still taking the title) and he was pipped into second place by stable teammate Mark Walsh in the Gold Cup.
Backing Irish-trained horses over British ones was also a previously viable strategy but that may not be the case this time around. Ireland have won the Prestbury Cup in eight of the last nine years though some British trainers believe 2026 could see a momentum swing.
“Nicky (Henderson) has got a good team of horses, and I’ve got some nice chances and there’s all those good young trainers… that are doing really well,” said English trainer Paul Nicholls.
“I think things are going to be totally different and probably over the next few years. But you know what Willie (Mullins) is like – he turns up with a huge team and they’re all ready to fire for Cheltenham.”
Fellow Englishman Henderson added: “I think the English squad is definitely stronger than it has been in previous years so I hope between us we can raise a bit of a fight. I think we can.
“It’s going to be very open, and I hope we can do a bit better this year what with all that Paul, Ben (Pauling) and Dan (Skelton) have got.”
It certainly feels as though the Brits can bring some firepower this year and especially in the Gold Cup itself. The Cheltenham Festival’s marquee race looks to be one of the most unpredictable races of the whole meeting. In Inothewayurthinkin there is a previous champion but he isn’t being heavily backed to win. Instead, Mullins’ Gaelic Warrior, Ben Pauling’s The Jukebox Man and Henderson’s Jango Baie lead the ante-post betting at 6/1 joint favourites. Rebecca Curtis’ Haiti Couleurs cannot be discounted either and Dan Skelton’s Grey Dawning is one to watch out for especially now that two-time winner Galopin Des Champs has been pulled out due to a pre-Festival setback.
And this is just for one race. Tuesday’s opening day will be headlined by the Champion Hurdle which is set to be a battle between four or five contenders in The New Lion, Brighterdaysahead, Golden Ace and Lossiemouth. Poniros also runs in this one after his stellar work last year and could yet secure another outsider win. On top of all that, overcast skies and wet and rainy conditions are forecast which adds an extra layer of unpredictability to proceedings meaning bookmakers will be rubbing their hands together in anticipation of a superb week.
Of course, there are some exceptions. Kopek Des Bordes should perform strongly in the Arkle on Tuesday and Thursday’s Mares Hurdle looks to be firmly in the hands of Wodhooh.
But even then, nothing is guaranteed. What is predictable though is that the racing will excite, the racecourse will be packed and the Cheltenham Festival will prove once again why it is the crown jewel of the horseracing calendar.
