Online betting platforms have provided a new means for people to become war profiteers, with millions of dollars reportedly spent on bets related to the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, according to a new Axios report.
Early on Saturday morning, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran. Since then, Iran has retaliated, launching its own drone strikes and missiles at U.S. allies in the region, with Trump saying the attack killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
As bombs fell and people died, gamblers around the world took advantage of the chaos to make a buck.
Kalshi, a prediction market, reportedly saw $36 million in bet volume related to whether or not there will be a regime change in Iran.
A similar online betting site, Polymarket, saw more than $31 million in trade volume relating to whether or not Khamenei would still be in power come March 31.
Other questions — drawing in millions of dollars in bets — asked whether or not a ceasefire will be announced or if the U.S. will carry out a full invasion of Iran.
It’s not the first time gamblers have made major money by betting on Trump’s military actions. When the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, an individual with a relatively new account pumped $30,000 into a bet that Maduro would be ousted. Hours later, the Trump administration captured Maduro, earning the gambler more than $436,000.
That wager led to speculation that someone with insider knowledge used the market to enrich themselves. While betting using insider knowledge is prohibited on the platforms, enforcement of those rules is left up to the sites themselves, not regulators.
Now there are suspicions that other insiders used the Iran strikes to get rich. Six accounts on Polymarket reportedly won approximately $1.2 million by predicting the U.S. would launch a strike on Iran on February 28, according to CoinDesk.
Blockchain analyzer Bubblemaps noted that the bets were made just hours before the strike, and that the accounts had no activity before making the Iran strike bets.
The Independent has requested comment from Polymarket.
For those hoping to get some geopolitical bets in, there are plenty of questions still open on the market.
Kalshi has an entire Iran section, where bettors can wager on whether or not Tehran will close the Strait of Hormuz and who will become the next Supreme Leader. Currently, the leading response to that question is that the position will be abolished, suggesting a belief that there will be regime change.
Polymarket is still accepting bets on whether or not Khamenei will be leading Iran come March 31. Right now, 93 percent of bettors say no.
Real gamblers can bet on which country the U.S. attacks next. As of this report, more than $2 million has been bet on that question, and 93 percent of gamblers have picked Somalia as Trump’s next target.
