Nottingham Forest’s last game was against Vitor Pereira’s last club. His first match in charge is against another of his former clubs. Maybe that is simply the logical consequence of the managerial turnover under Evangelos Marinakis and the choice of a peripatetic figure like Pereira.
A reign starts against Fenerbahce this evening, Forest playing in European competition on Asian soil. Pereira spent 25 games at the helm of the Istanbul club, which is three more than Sean Dyche lasted at Forest. And that, in turn, was almost three times as many as Ange Postecoglou mustered earlier this season.
Perhaps the Europa League led Forest to this point: appointing the manager who won it last year may have been Marinakis’ way of targeting continental silverware and a place in the Champions League. Instead, Forest are threatened with the drop into the Championship. Coincidentally, Postecoglou’s points-per-game ratio in this season’s Premier League is the same as Pereira’s: the Australian got one from five matches with Forest, the Portuguese two from 10 at Wolves.
If that may not bode well for Forest’s 12 remaining top-flight fixtures, the bare numbers might indicate that Dyche was unfortunate to be dismissed. He took 22 points from 18 Premier League matches, which is survival form; he lost only one of the last six.
But Forest were calamitously bad in that defeat, 3-1 at Leeds, while some of Dyche’s worst days came in other competitions: the hopeless performance at Wrexham in the FA Cup, or the 1-0 defeat to Braga in the Europa League which in turn consigned them to the play-off round.
There was something predictable about Dyche’s unravelling. At his best, his sides can be purposeful, efficient, good on the break, all qualities Forest displayed in their 3-0 win at Anfield. Too often, however, his football was awful. Give him better players – and Forest have spent around £200m in the last year – and his sides could still be unwatchable. Dyche could proudly wear the Forest badge, cite his past as a youth-team player at the club, surround himself with the 1990s luminaries Ian Woan and Steve Stone, but dismal football did not get him support in the stands.
If Pereira’s safety mission will be measured first in the points required to perhaps finish ahead of a resurgent West Ham – now being organised by Nuno Espirito Santo, the first of Marinakis’ three sackings this season – style may still be a consideration. Combine the track records of manager and owner and maybe there is no chance of longevity anyway – Pereira has had eight managerial stints of under 40 games – but there was the sense Marinakis wanted Forest to be more expansive than they were under Nuno, let alone Dyche.
In Morgan Gibbs-White, Elliot Anderson and Callum Hudson-Odoi, there should be a level of creativity, but Forest are the second lowest scorers in the Premier League. That could be attributed to the absence of Chris Wood, injured since October, or the reality Igor Jesus has been more prolific in Europe. Forest’s return of 35 shots but no goals in the stalemate with Wolves was un-Dychean.
Pereira was parachuted into Wolves mid-season last year, got fine goal returns from Jorgen Strand Larsen and Matheus Cunha and galvanised a club with his charisma and quotability. Forest, who rejected one supposed guarantee against relegation in Dyche, could hope for a repeat.
Europe is a complication as well an opportunity. Two of Pereira’s first three league games are against the last two champions. The last two away trips are at sides currently in the top five. Only two of those dozen matches are against anyone currently in the bottom six, only three against those in the bottom eight.
Two of his first three fixtures in all competitions, however, are against Fenerbahce. They include Pereira’s captain at Wolves, Nelson Semedo. They have signed N’Golo Kante to add to ambitious summer recruits such as Ederson, Marco Asensio and Milan Skriniar. They are unbeaten in the Turkish Super Lig, though not top of it. Their form in Europe has been more chequered. Jose Mourinho lost a Champions League qualifier to Benfica and then lost his job. Fenerbahce only came 19th in the league phase of the Europa League. A team featuring three Champions League winners nevertheless represent pedigree opponents.
Pereira may yet join Brian Clough in a select group of managers to win Forest European silverware. Or he could be part of a historically big band. He arrived at the City Ground saying he believed he had the trust of Marinakis. It is a statement that could make him sound naïve, potentially soon.
Forest may feel Dyche was sacked in time to help them beat the drop. The danger for Pereira, their fourth manager of the season, is that he has arrived sufficiently early for there still to be a fifth.
