With his allies draining away, Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in a similar position as Sir Tony Blair after nine years in Downing Street. Except that the incumbent has arrived at the same point after just 19 months.
Under siege over what now seems an obviously disastrous decision to appoint the disgraced Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, Sir Keir looks like the loneliest prime minister ever to have stepped through the doors of No 10.
Anas Sarwar, the Labour Scottish leader, has become the first senior party figure to urge Sir Keir to quit, saying: “The leadership in Downing Street has to change.” He may have thought he was softening his blow by calling the prime minister his “friend” while doing it, but as the latest twist of the knife, it matters little. The number of cabinet ministers who scrambled to Sir Keir’s aid only served to draw attention to the debased position in which he now finds himself.
It is a sorry state for Sir Keir, a decent man, a lawyer, prosecutor, a knight of the shires, a man not overly interested in politics and who wanted it to tread lightly on our lives, to find himself. He never wanted to play politics, but he has been dragged into a losing game.
When Morgan McSweeney, the PM’s chief of staff, resigned on Sunday, Sir Keir lost the man who not only won him his historic electoral majority but in effect told him what to do with it. With his director of communications, Tim Allan, fleeing the scene, too, he has in effect lost the confidantes who represent his voice, his brain, his ears.
For all of Labour’s missteps in office – many self-inflicted, and committed in so short a time – it would be detrimental to the country if Sir Keir were also bowled out of office right now. His successors are in disarray. The only winners would be his enemies, Nigel Farage chief among them. Those who would urge him to follow his chief of staff out the door should be careful what they wish for.
Sir Keir has the fight of his life on his hands, but sometimes, out of a crisis, people find themselves in ways they never expected. We have yet to discover what Starmerism is – but as he sits in the last chance saloon, he must drink deep and come out swinging.
It is still unclear how Mr McSweeney’s resignation will ultimately play out. If it was hoped that taking the blame for recommending that the prime minister appoint Lord Mandelson to be our man in Washington would somehow silence those calling for Sir Keir’s resignation, Mr Sarwar’s intervention is the answer.
For the PM, it has been a bruising start to the year. Last week’s humble address ended with Sir Keir being forced by rebel Labour MPs to disclose all documents relating to Lord Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador – showing that, despite a huge majority, he had effectively lost control of the House of Commons. This was not – or not only – a matter of factional divisions in party ranks, such as when he was forced into perhaps his biggest political U-turn on welfare reform. This was something akin to an all-out revolt.
Nor is the voting public helping matters. Consistent polls suggest Sir Keir has become one of the most unpopular prime ministers this country has ever had.
Alone as he is, however, and desperate though his situation might appear, he still has a choice. He can succumb to what might look like the inevitable, or he can delve deep into what remains of his inner resources and show what he is made of. In the words of one of his forebears in office: “If you’re going through hell, keep going.” This is a crisis – for Sir Keir and the country – and a crisis, as is also said, can at the same time be an opportunity not to waste.
For his own sake, and that of the country, Sir Keir needs to stay and fight – and it could yet be that losing his two closest lieutenants turns out to be a blessing, even if a blessing well disguised. It leaves him free to build a new team that reflects what he wants to do with the power that resides in his Commons majority and the three-plus years that remain of his term.
To do that, he has to turn his back on the past year of drift and about-turns, capitalise on the strength of character that took him, via the law, to No 10, work out what he stands for, and find his own voice. It will not be easy, but it is this loneliest prime minister’s only chance.
