Sir Keir Starmer’s deputy leader has warned the upcoming by-election in Gorton and Denton is a “dry run” for a general election as the prime minister – wounded by the Peter Mandelson scandal – faces a battle to cling on to the historically safe Labour seat.
Lucy Powell told the Independent that the vote, on 26 February, represents “a line in the sand” in Labour’s fight to stop the advance of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
But she admitted she expects the Mandelson issue to come up on the doorstep, and she could not say that Labour was confident of retaining the seat or if the prime minister will show his face there.
Ministers, senior Labour figures and backbench MPs believe the by-election is “the crunch point” for the beleaguered prime minister, with one claiming: “It’s a referendum on Starmer, pure and simple.”
The prime minister has faced the toughest week of his premiership so far, with his integrity and judgement have been called into question over his decision to appoint Lord Mandelson as US ambassador despite knowing about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
To add to his problems, it has been claimed that he and his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney were warned against appointing Mandelson to the role of ambassador to the US by both former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and Labour peer Maurice Glasman.
Ms Rayner, who was in Gorton and Denton campaigning on Saturday, is now emerging as a potential replacement for Sir Keir and her intervention on Wednesday siding with the Tories was crucial in forcing the PM to release all vetting documents linked to Mandelson’s appointment.
Shocking revelations on Mandelson allegedly passing confidential market sensitive government material to Epstein when he was business secretary in 2009 have added further questions over the appointment.
Ms Powell admitted the scandal will become one of the factors in the by-election, and gave a lukewarm defence of the prime minister’s actions in appointing him as US ambassador.
“All I’d say is that prime ministers have to make judgment calls all day long and all the time, and sometimes they get them wrong”, she said. “I think the prime minister’s put his hands up about that.”
Labour is under no illusions about the scale of the task ahead in Gorton and Denton. Ministers have been ordered up to the Greater Manchester constituency to campaign in a seat the party won with more than 50 per cent of the vote in 2024.
Their campaign has already been hit by a row over Sir Keir blocking Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham standing to be the Labour candidate, with many believing he was the only one who could stop Reform.
Ms Powell, who voted to allow Mr Burnham to run on Labour’s National Executive Committee, said she and the Manchester “want to draw a line” under that episode but insisted he was “a great asset” in the by-election campaign.
She highlighted how a succession of cabinet ministers are being sent up to the by-election to knock on doors including chancellor Rachel Reeves, education secretary Bridget Phillipson and transport secretary Heidi Alexander as Labour throws everything at stopping Reform. But she was unable to say whether the beleaguered prime minister would be joining them.
She said: “I’m not sure yet, but look, everyone’s going to be coming and playing their part. But I speak to him regularly about it.”
Nigel Farage, who has visited the constituency several times to campaign with Reform UK candidate Matt Goodwin, told The Independent: “I really do believe this is turning into a referendum on Keir Starmer.”
One Labour MP said: “Farage could not have written this. It allows him to paint politicians as all ‘at it’, part of some kind of elite, helping each other out instead of voters. It is an absolute disaster for a seat where everyone is watching us and the pressure is on to prove that Reform can be stopped.”
A minister added: “If we do [come third], the PM is in trouble.”
Others repeated that he needs to go now with, leftwing MP Nadia Whittome describing the prime minister’s position as “untenable”.
Kim Johnson, the Labour MP for Liverpool Riverside, said: “The public and MPs aren’t willing to wait for a by-election or the locals – both were already going to be serious tests. The Mandelson scandal eclipses all of it.”
Neil Duncan-Jordan, the MP for Poole, added: “We can’t just keep going on like this – lurching from one crisis to the next.”
Recent polling suggests Reform is leading the way, but only by a few points on average. The Green’s published canvas data suggesting Reform was leading with them in second and Labour a distant third.
Two of the current main MRP polls put Reform ahead of Labour: Electoral Calculus, at 32 per cent to Labour’s 22.6, and Britain Predicts, at 32 per cent to Labour’s much higher 26.
Meanwhile, Polling Report predicts that Labour will hold the seat with 35.26 per cent of the vote, while Reform gets 27.65.
But Ms Powell, who represents the nearby Manchester Central seat and is taking a lead in the campaign with candidate Angeliki Stogia, took a defiant tone.
“This is not about my fortunes or other people’s fortunes. I’ve had enough of their [Reform’s] division, their othering, their blaming of the problems of society on immigrants.”
Highlighting how Reform’s candidate Matt Goodwin has been endorsed by far right activist Tommy Robison, she added: “There has to be a line in the sand here, and this by election, is that line, and I’m holding it up firmly, as we all are as a team.”
Asked if this campaign was “a dry run” for Labour’s fight with Reform on a national level, she said: “In some ways this is. It’s about showing that we are absolutely up for that fight, we’re prepared to take on that fight.
“There are things that we will need to try out here and to learn from here. It’s important because we just can’t let Reform come into an area like this and have a free run.”
