Morgan Rogers has hit out at xG (expected goals), the popular football statistic, as ‘a whole load of nonsense’ when asked about his thoughts on the metric.
xG shows the probability that a shot will lead to a goal being scored based on the characteristics of the strike and the events leading up to it, such as the type of attack or body part used to shoot.
The shot is then compared to other shots with similar qualities to conclude the probability of the strike resulting in a goal, with an xG of 0.0 being a certain miss and 1.0 being a certain goal.
In an interview with Sky Sports, the Aston Villa talisman said: “I think xG is a whole load of nonsense.”
The 23-year-old has sustained his fine form this season after winning the PFA Young Player of the Year last year, with Villa currently having the 12th-highest xG in the league after their loss to Everton.
Football fans have grown accustomed to seeing xG and other football data metrics during broadcasts, including Match of the Day, with the number now widely accepted as providing a snapshot of a team or player’s performance or form.
But Rogers explained how the metric has left him frustrated: “It feels like a crime – I’m scoring and xG is putting me down.
“The manager always said to our midfielders last season, ‘I’m still waiting for goals from the edge of the box’.”
Despite Villa’s 1-0 loss to Everton last week, Rogers and his teammates have certainly taken Unai Emery’s typically frank advice, earning the England international a nomination for December’s Premier League Goal of the Month.
Sublime long-range efforts – such as Ollie Watkins’ strike against Nottingham Forest or Emiliano Buendia’s curling effort against Tottenham – have proved to be a successful route to firing The Villans into the top four this campaign.
He said: “If you actually look at shots we’re hitting, they’re good options to take. We’re not taking pot luck shots.
“You can’t always score the perfect goal, from a cross or a tap in. There are different ways to score goals.”
The England international is currently outperforming his own total xG of 4.21 after scoring seven goals so far this season.
He added: “Sometimes when you are in a stadium and you hear people shout shoot, then that’s what fans want. They want excitement, enjoyment, shots and goals to win games. That’s what they want to see.”
